Tomislav Marinovic
Engineer, AI Value-Chain Research
AST SpaceMobile is semi-sovereign at best because an American company ultimately owns and controls its satellites. It is hard to see many countries, especially the EU, buying a fully sovereign pitch when they may want to own the entire space-mobile stack, as with compute infrastructure. AST can still win big on international agreements; some may be permanent, while others may be temporary if countries decide to build their own capacity. x.com x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's large satellite antennas and spectrum could preserve its competitive runway against SpaceX. SpaceX's smaller satellites may struggle to serve phones from orbit; building larger ones around AST patents could take years. If carriers see SpaceX as a rival mobile operator, they may give AST more capital or spectrum. AST already has partnerships and spectrum in Japan and Brazil, but the spectrum contest has no clear winner, and a larger space market can support several. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile has more of a moat abroad where Starlink cannot operate. The Ukraine-Starlink dispute is likely to keep Starlink out of the EU and other markets. In the US, the thesis rests completely on mobile network operators that appear to need AST to fight Starlink. AST never had an overall moat, and it should be further ahead by now. x.com x.com
Europe's push for satellite independence as Starlink expands could make AST SpaceMobile one of its most attractive alternatives and a major beneficiary. Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone, all AST partners, signed a letter of intent to explore a joint spectrum bid; AST cites over 500 million European subscribers. No spectrum purchase or exclusive AST contract is secured; regulatory approval, commercial agreements, deployment and cash flow must follow. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's D2D prospects weaken as telcos look to Amazon and Ligado may give up spectrum. Telcos see Amazon as their most realistic potential savior, though their JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both. People consulted expect Amazon to buy Viasat mainly for international spectrum; US capacity and timing remain uncertain. AST's payments do not cover Ligado's Viasat dues, so Ligado may settle with the US for auction credits and surrender spectrum rights, leaving AST stranded. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's selloff looks irrational: if SpaceX plans to compete directly as a mobile network operator, AST's satellite connectivity could shift from a useful partnership to an operational necessity for global carriers. The case depends on SpaceX actually pursuing that competition. x.com
SpaceX and Amazon's unlimited resources and talent make AST SpaceMobile an unwise investment. Buying it means competing with both. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's beta testing and initial revenue could bring discovery and change perceptions, as coverage still treats satellite counts as a measure of service quality. VG reports that Zelenskyy warned Europe risks Ukraine's vulnerabilities if it relies on Starlink and urged European alternatives; AST is not mentioned. Sovereign satellite communications are now high on Europe's security agenda. x.com
Anti-SpaceX demand could bring AST SpaceMobile and Amazon a lot of business. If Avery Sullivan's interpretation of AST's E-band filing as a push into consumer broadband is right, that would be huge for AST. x.com
SpaceX's move makes AST SpaceMobile's future pricing power more uncertain and leaves less room for delays. That makes AST a bearish lean here, despite the real possibility that mobile carriers back it more aggressively if Starlink goes after their customers. AST can still succeed, but execution is far from guaranteed and competition is getting stronger. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile looks set to win as European mobile operators seek an alternative to Starlink. Bloomberg reports that some of Europe's biggest operators have agreed to form a consortium to bid for satellite spectrum and offer direct-to-mobile service to counter Starlink. x.com
