Starlink risks losing paying customers because service can fail at the provider's unilateral discretion. Its conduct in Ukraine is like insurance that fails to pay during a hurricane: zero incentive to keep paying and maximum incentive to bypass reliance on it. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.com 

Heavily indebted businesses with negative cash flow are vulnerable to SpaceX's competition. SpaceX will eventually wipe all of them out. x.com 

SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com 

SpaceX's expansion could dilute shareholders and flood the spot market with compute capacity, making 2027 a potential disaster despite this quarter's results. A large share of its proposed capacity would go to the spot market, unlike Meta's internally used capacity; valuing it as if peak spot prices last forever ignores that risk. SpaceX should be down, not up, on that outlook. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's Q3 profitability lets it fund much more of its buildout, significantly reducing the need for outside financing. Revenue of $14.6B and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8B beat even the high cases; free cash flow was still -$10B after $19.6B of capex. SpaceX said new compute deals price a bit above $30-$50 per watt with payback under a year, though Q4 capex is guided to $35-$40B. Starlink subscribers fell just short of the low case but beat the Street, and consumer revenue grew 26%. x.com  x.com  … Show more

SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.com 

SpaceX remains a bearish call even as Elon Musk says he sees a path to it being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy. x.com 

Proposed FCC rules to more than double SCS spectrum are wildly bullish for AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, the only two SCS license holders. AST trades below the value of its Ligado rights; its agreed deal has almost no chance of FCC blockage despite objections. AST could return to its highs sooner rather than later if the November 9 call clarifies production and Blue Origin keeps moving New Glenn toward the pad. New Glenn is the value unlock. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's latest reveal has no financial viability for shareholders yet because anything like it may not reach roads before 2035. Like Optimus in 2021, it is cool but not viable yet. SpaceX shareholders should get Tesla at a bargain after Tesla takes a serious beating: Musk owns 49% of SpaceX and already controls its vote, so a depressed acquisition price would give them a better deal while consolidating his control. The merger looks like a matter of when, not if; its price is the question. x.com  … Show more