Art of Speculation
Chinese-Language AI Fundamentals & Macro, Concentrated Investing
Broadcom should keep benefiting as big tech companies build custom ASICs, with Meta launching its own chip with Broadcom, manufactured by TSMC, to cut compute costs and reduce reliance on Nvidia and AMD. Meta is also planning a 1GW data center in Alberta, a sign AI compute demand is not in surplus as feared. x.com
Broadcom's renewed long-term agreement with Apple through 2031 locks in its legacy business and counters a core bear argument. The deal expands from 5G RF, WiFi and Bluetooth to custom ASICs across Apple's devices and cloud AI inference hardware, offsetting the roughly $7.1B of yearly revenue at risk from Apple's in-house wireless chips. Custom AI chips carry 45-60% gross margins versus 30-38% for RF, so with the Google TPU deal and VMware, Broadcom's overall margin should rise substantially. x.com
Broader adoption of custom AI silicon could benefit Broadcom and Marvell. OpenAI reportedly plans to expand its use of Google's TPUs beyond Nvidia GPUs, and Google TPUs are coming to Oracle Cloud in 2027. Both are potential tailwinds for custom-chip suppliers. x.com
Broadcom's integrated optics, electronics and packaging could lower custom-chip system costs because separate suppliers defend their margins. At similar valuations, it is preferred to Nvidia and has more room to beat expectations. Google TPU v8 shipments are estimated at 4.0M in 2026 and 9.1M in 2027, assuming Broadcom supplies the remainder after MediaTek's allocation. Anthropic financing adds value only if chip profit exceeds likely support payments and capacity costs. x.com x.com
Broadcom borrowing again signals a $1.8 trillion company running low on cash. Per @KobeissiLetter, citing the WSJ, Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion of financing for OpenAI's custom AI chip, with Apollo and Blackstone among the lenders it has approached. x.com
Anthropic's $63B custom-chip deal bolsters Broadcom's case for growth from custom AI silicon. OpenAI's Jalapeño chip is seen as next, and the AI chip supercycle is just getting started. x.com
Broadcom's reported $63 billion deal to finance AI chips for Anthropic is a long-term bullish catalyst for AI and semiconductor stocks. Kalshi Finance reports the arrangement; the bullish view covers Broadcom, TSMC, Nvidia, Nebius and the SMH and SOXX semiconductor ETFs. x.com
Broadcom's AI business is smaller and growing slower than Nvidia's networking unit alone, yet Broadcom is valued at $2.269T against Nvidia's $5.201T. Broadcom's Q2 AI semiconductor revenue rose 143% to $10.8B, with Q3 guided to $16.0B, while Nvidia's data-center networking revenue rose 199% to $14.8B. Hock Tan also said Google is diversifying away from Broadcom, and a Fubon roadmap shows Google using MediaTek for some TPUs. x.com x.com
Broadcom's custom silicon business stands to turn Anthropic's IPO funding into chip orders. The cash raised for Anthropic's compute spending would flow down the stack into Broadcom's order book. x.com
A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.com
Broadcom and MediaTek risk losing chip ownership and margin as hyperscalers pull custom silicon in-house for platform control and margin. @jukan05 relays a rumor that Google will move to customer-owned tooling from TPU v9, ordering wafers directly from TSMC like AWS's Annapurna and reducing Broadcom and MediaTek to IP and design-service roles at lower per-chip margins. Even if not now, it will happen eventually, because the end state is all about optimization. x.com
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.com
