Investor_NICK
Biotech & Technology Investor
DoorDash's EPS beat is mostly tax-driven, and the apparent discount on its Instacart purchase will take time to matter. Despite a strong quarter, $1.06 GAAP EPS at a 3.9% tax rate would be about $0.85 at 23%, roughly in line with consensus; organic GOV growth stayed at 23%. DoorDash is paying 11.7x annualized Q3 EBITDA for Instacart versus its own 16x multiple, but the $17B deal won't close until late 2027 or 1H28, and management plans to reinvest more than 100% of first-year synergies. x.comÂ
DoorDash may be seeking acquired growth because its market share looks to have peaked. Its interest in buying Instacart looks desperate given its poor platform, adding to the short-DoorDash side of the long-Uber pair. x.comÂ
DoorDash's clear accumulation makes its continued selloff look unjustified. The stock is still falling despite that buying. x.comÂ
DoorDash faces a weak long-term setup because many people hate the service and don't have to use it, so they would switch as soon as a viable alternative appears. The stock is barely above its IPO price from almost six years ago; buying the 2022-2023 lows paid off, but that happened across similar names. DoorDash can still do well long term. x.comÂ
DoorDash's pricing is hitting its limits: charging $30 for a $6 burger can only go so far. x.comÂ
American demand for delivery makes DoorDash hard to bet against despite reports it may acquire Instacart. Analysts target over $250 against a $169 share price. x.comÂ
Potential buyout news involving DoorDash could fuel substantial upside for Instacart. It is finally starting to break out, and could easily double from here. x.comÂ
DoorDash looks expensive against its cash earnings, at 68x trailing and 50x next year's, versus about 20x for retailers. A fair value of $87.02-$110.75, or 20x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, puts the price about 110% above fair, and even that leans on a forecast 31% above the trailing figure. This is a levels-only read from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
DoorDash's core business is fine and its investments make sense; the problem is a tough narrative, so below $160 it is probably fine to own for anyone not judged on monthly performance. The tape is unforgiving: investors keep asking about FY27 though management would never guide that far out, and investor relations has brushed off calls for an analyst day and tough questions on the investment cycle. x.com x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash is a short on a roughly three-year horizon because personal AI agents will deal-hunt for users and drive its profits toward zero, as @citrini predicted. DoorDash's own new CLI lets agents search stores, find the best deals and check out directly, a sign this is in its third inning. If software is distributed headless through APIs and CLIs, it is unclear what distribution moats survive. x.com x.comÂ