Alva - Your AI Investing Agent

M&M Lion Fund

Small-Fund Portfolio Manager Since 2023, IE Business School & Javeriana Background

29 Oct, 12:34Latest

DoorDash's EPS beat is mostly tax-driven, and the apparent discount on its Instacart purchase will take time to matter. Despite a strong quarter, $1.06 GAAP EPS at a 3.9% tax rate would be about $0.85 at 23%, roughly in line with consensus; organic GOV growth stayed at 23%. DoorDash is paying 11.7x annualized Q3 EBITDA for Instacart versus its own 16x multiple, but the $17B deal won't close until late 2027 or 1H28, and management plans to reinvest more than 100% of first-year synergies. x.com

DASH

7 May, 17:23

DoorDash is hard to justify holding over Uber on either business quality or valuation. DoorDash's organic growth excluding Deliveroo is roughly 21-24%, but FCF-to-EBITDA conversion of 55% sits well below the 70%+ seen before that acquisition, and Dasher gas support is a headwind, with management guiding over $50M of gross cost in Q2 alone. Being an Uber shareholder may bias this view. x.com

UBER

DASH

taobanker

App Builder

27 Oct

UBER

DASH

DoorDash may be seeking acquired growth because its market share looks to have peaked. Its interest in buying Instacart looks desperate given its poor platform, adding to the short-DoorDash side of the long-Uber pair. x.com

artisanwill

Equity & Options Trader, Analyst at The Option Cartel, MS Finance

26 Oct

CART

Potential buyout news involving DoorDash could fuel substantial upside for Instacart. It is finally starting to break out, and could easily double from here. x.com

Just a Dude Who Invests

Retail Investor, Economics & Technology Commentary

27 Oct

DASH

American demand for delivery makes DoorDash hard to bet against despite reports it may acquire Instacart. Analysts target over $250 against a $169 share price. x.com

Prepared Remarks

Equity Investor, Macro Commentary

24 Oct

UBER

Uber's potential Instacart acquisition could create valuable marketplace and route-density synergies. Scaled marketplace assets are rare; buying one would also keep competitors from consolidating grocery delivery, a sticky category with large average orders. Growth alone is not the measure of the deal, and tech buybacks are overrated. x.com x.com x.com

GrowthTurtle

Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma

25 Aug

DASH

DoorDash looks expensive against its cash earnings, at 68x trailing and 50x next year's, versus about 20x for retailers. A fair value of $87.02-$110.75, or 20x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, puts the price about 110% above fair, and even that leans on a forecast 31% above the trailing figure. This is a levels-only read from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com

AllllSevens

Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies

28 Oct

DASH

DoorDash's clear accumulation makes its continued selloff look unjustified. The stock is still falling despite that buying. x.com

Investor_NICK

Biotech & Technology Investor

11 May

DASH

DoorDash handing an existing customer a $10 discount offer is probably not a great sign for shareholders, with the stock already down 28% this year. x.com

Tulip King

Head of Strategy at CounterpartyTV, Crypto Investor

16 Jul

DASH

DoorDash is a short on a roughly three-year horizon because personal AI agents will deal-hunt for users and drive its profits toward zero, as @citrini predicted. DoorDash's own new CLI lets agents search stores, find the best deals and check out directly, a sign this is in its third inning. If software is distributed headless through APIs and CLIs, it is unclear what distribution moats survive. x.com x.com

Gary Black

Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager of The Future Fund

5 Aug

DASH

DoorDash should recover from its post-earnings dip given strength in orders, revenue and EBITDA. Q2 marketplace GOV rose 36% to $33.1B, revenue was $4.45B versus $4.34B expected, adjusted gross margin 54.2% versus 51.8% and adjusted EBITDA $914M versus $843.4M. Q3 EBITDA guidance of $950M-1.1B brackets the $982.2M estimate. EPS of $0.46 missed $0.48 and free cash flow was light, on higher costs tied to more orders. x.com

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

20 Sep

DASH

DoorDash faces a weak long-term setup because many people hate the service and don't have to use it, so they would switch as soon as a viable alternative appears. The stock is barely above its IPO price from almost six years ago; buying the 2022-2023 lows paid off, but that happened across similar names. DoorDash can still do well long term. x.com

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