Tulip King
Head of Strategy at CounterpartyTV, Crypto Investor
DoorDash is a short on a roughly three-year horizon because personal AI agents will deal-hunt for users and drive its profits toward zero, as @citrini predicted. DoorDash's own new CLI lets agents search stores, find the best deals and check out directly, a sign this is in its third inning. If software is distributed headless through APIs and CLIs, it is unclear what distribution moats survive. x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash may be seeking acquired growth because its market share looks to have peaked. Its interest in buying Instacart looks desperate given its poor platform, adding to the short-DoorDash side of the long-Uber pair. x.comÂ
DoorDash's EPS beat is mostly tax-driven, and the apparent discount on its Instacart purchase will take time to matter. Despite a strong quarter, $1.06 GAAP EPS at a 3.9% tax rate would be about $0.85 at 23%, roughly in line with consensus; organic GOV growth stayed at 23%. DoorDash is paying 11.7x annualized Q3 EBITDA for Instacart versus its own 16x multiple, but the $17B deal won't close until late 2027 or 1H28, and management plans to reinvest more than 100% of first-year synergies. x.comÂ
DoorDash's clear accumulation makes its continued selloff look unjustified. The stock is still falling despite that buying. x.comÂ
DoorDash faces a weak long-term setup because many people hate the service and don't have to use it, so they would switch as soon as a viable alternative appears. The stock is barely above its IPO price from almost six years ago; buying the 2022-2023 lows paid off, but that happened across similar names. DoorDash can still do well long term. x.comÂ
Potential buyout news involving DoorDash could fuel substantial upside for Instacart. It is finally starting to break out, and could easily double from here. x.comÂ
American demand for delivery makes DoorDash hard to bet against despite reports it may acquire Instacart. Analysts target over $250 against a $169 share price. x.comÂ
Uber and DoorDash run commodity businesses that depend on governments able to spoil them, leaving much risk and little upside. Per @OnlyInBOS, Massachusetts now guarantees Uber and Lyft drivers at least $34.48 an hour plus benefits under a $175M settlement, and per @Investor_NICK_, Minneapolis's city council is proposing an emergency meeting to ban DoorDash drone delivery to protect drivers' income. x.com x.comÂ
Uber's potential Instacart acquisition could create valuable marketplace and route-density synergies. Scaled marketplace assets are rare; buying one would also keep competitors from consolidating grocery delivery, a sticky category with large average orders. Growth alone is not the measure of the deal, and tech buybacks are overrated. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Shopify and DoorDash are likely winners from consumer AI agents, which hurt marketplaces and sponsored ads but help logistics, discovery ads and businesses selling outside marketplaces. Less reliance on marketplaces favors Shopify as an e-commerce enabler, while DoorDash's logistics remain best in class. Both sold off on a knee-jerk reaction, and platform shifts hugely underprice management; they have two of the best CEOs in the space. x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash handing an existing customer a $10 discount offer is probably not a great sign for shareholders, with the stock already down 28% this year. x.comÂ
