Tae Kim
AI/Semiconductor Journalist, Author of Key Context
Korean equities have a central role in the AI trade because Samsung and SK hynix supply most of the memory it needs. Despite the shakeout, the KOSPI leads the major markets shown at roughly +36% this year. The bullish lean faces a flow warning: Korean semiconductor ETF 20-day flows fell from nearly +$4B in June to about -$703M by October 18 as the index approaches rising support. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
South Korea's finance ministry moving to stabilize the stock market and restrict leveraged ETF trading could mark an interim bottom in the KOSPI. x.com
Korean equities are correcting like an altcoin after moving like one, going from euphoria to a bear market in barely a month. A rush of new investors, leverage and AI-chip hype drove the KOSPI up too fast, and much of the drop is that excess being flushed out, with war fears and rising oil adding pressure. x.com
Korean equities are a long as renewed optimism about the AI trade drives a record 15% jump. x.com
Korean equities look near a bottom as retail investors who levered long at the KOSPI top now short it at the lows. After new rules effective July 31 raised the minimum deposit for single-stock leveraged ETFs to ₩30M, retail net-sold over ₩1 trillion of single-stock leverage on day one, led by SK hynix and Samsung products, and bought about ₩500bn of index inverse ETFs instead, led by a 2x KOSPI inverse fund. x.com x.com
Retail leverage and AI concentration have fueled the Korean equities rout. The KOSPI fell more than 14% in a week, its worst weekly decline since 2008. Korean equities will fall further if the rout in SK hynix and Samsung continues, though some dip buyers may already be lining up. x.com x.com
Korean equities have more upside as fresh news confirms the KOSPI deleveraging story laid out two days earlier. The KOSPI rallied premarket on the news, ahead of the US futures open, and Korea is expected to open limit up. Conviction in Korea is running even higher. x.com
Korean equities' 17.91% rebound looks higher quality because foreigners and institutions absorbed heavy retail selling as leveraged ETF trading collapsed. Foreigners bought over KRW 7 trillion of stocks, about 75% in SK hynix, Samsung Electronics and related names, but barely any index futures, signaling real rebuilding. Retail sold KRW 8.25 trillion, shifting from leveraged dip-buying to cutting risk. Under new rules, single-stock leveraged ETF turnover fell from KRW 12.4tn to 3tn. x.com
Korean equities face further downside because South Korea's intervention looks designed to push the KOSPI far lower, with every announcement so far bearish. It appears aimed at liquidating Korean investors, though that could change. x.com
Korean equities look past the earnings selloff because fundamentals never changed and sentiment is catching up. The KOSPI turned green with foreign investors net buyers two days straight and institutions buying hard, while Samsung is stabilizing after its post-earnings-beat volatility. It is not all clear, but an end to earnings selling is usually a good sign, as Sandisk and AMD showed with turbulence into an aggressive rally. x.com