Space Investor
Space-Sector Investor
AST SpaceMobile has its best margin of safety in a long time because Deutsche Bank's roughly $19B valuation of its leased Ligado spectrum rights nearly matches its roughly $18B market cap. If Deutsche Bank is right, the satellites, network, relationships and upside are effectively free. The rights are leased for 80 years. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's risk-reward has become more attractive after the selloff: valuation is more defensible against its growth potential and production is ramping, though valuation, production delays and launch constraints remain unresolved. The view is a calculated, execution-dependent reentry rather than a full reversal of those concerns. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.com
Deutsche Bank says AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird progress and carrier joint ventures make SpaceX's spectrum deal less threatening than feared. It upgraded the shares from Neutral to Buy and sees potential for larger partners such as T-Mobile to join through joint ventures. GF institutional tracking shows fund additions, and recent filings indicate net insider buying. Continuous service still requires constellation deployment. AST SpaceMobile could reach $176. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's D2D prospects weaken as telcos look to Amazon and Ligado may give up spectrum. Telcos see Amazon as their most realistic potential savior, though their JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both. People consulted expect Amazon to buy Viasat mainly for international spectrum; US capacity and timing remain uncertain. AST's payments do not cover Ligado's Viasat dues, so Ligado may settle with the US for auction credits and surrender spectrum rights, leaving AST stranded. x.com
Proposed FCC rules to more than double SCS spectrum are wildly bullish for AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, the only two SCS license holders. AST trades below the value of its Ligado rights; its agreed deal has almost no chance of FCC blockage despite objections. AST could return to its highs sooner rather than later if the November 9 call clarifies production and Blue Origin keeps moving New Glenn toward the pad. New Glenn is the value unlock. x.com x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's planned 800 MHz spectrum purchase does not make it more competitive with AST SpaceMobile for mobile-operator partnerships because it will mainly serve direct-to-consumer customers, whom AST is not targeting, according to Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank called Friday's 10% selloff misguided and raised its AST price target to $93; the upgrade looks warranted, and AST shares should go much higher. x.com x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.com
Europe's push for satellite independence as Starlink expands could make AST SpaceMobile one of its most attractive alternatives and a major beneficiary. Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone, all AST partners, signed a letter of intent to explore a joint spectrum bid; AST cites over 500 million European subscribers. No spectrum purchase or exclusive AST contract is secured; regulatory approval, commercial agreements, deployment and cash flow must follow. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's satellite network, which connects directly to regular phones, is starting to turn into revenue. Q2 revenue was $31.5 million, up from $1.2 million a year earlier, and it reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $150-200 million. It has 13 BlueBird satellites in orbit with about 45 targeted by early 2027, around $1.3 billion of contracted revenue, and roughly 60 carrier partners including AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's ~$20B valuation prices in years of growth despite only $31M in revenue last quarter, leaving expectations vulnerable to an unwind even as the business progresses. Space communications remains attractive long term, but a sustained loss of $50.70 could deepen the correction toward $19-35; that move is not certain. Holding support and reclaiming $60-66 by month-end would improve the outlook. A 10-15% market correction could also cause a selloff without implying business failure. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.com
