Jason Luongo
Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies
AST SpaceMobile's satellite network, which connects directly to regular phones, is starting to turn into revenue. Q2 revenue was $31.5 million, up from $1.2 million a year earlier, and it reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $150-200 million. It has 13 BlueBird satellites in orbit with about 45 targeted by early 2027, around $1.3 billion of contracted revenue, and roughly 60 carrier partners including AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks set up for gains through 2028 as it deploys its constellation and launches the first nationwide US LEO cellular service this year. The BlueBird 7 loss came from a Blue Origin launch failure, not AST technology, and was insured; BlueBirds 8-10 ship within 30 days and the 45-satellite 2026 target holds. It has over $1 billion of contracted backlog, $3.9 billion of liquidity after a $1.075 billion convertible raise, and revenue projected at $2.1 billion by 2028. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is moving toward commercial service. Thirteen BlueBirds are live after the latest Falcon 9 launch, with beta broadband targeting about 200 Mbps to unmodified phones later this year, and US Mobile is preparing a Q4 direct-to-cell rollout. Q2 revenue rose to $31.5M from $1.2M, guidance holds at $150-200M and backlog is near $1.3B; Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $90. The stock broke out of a descending channel on rising volume. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile could make connectivity abundant with just a few dozen satellites, earning 90%-plus gross margins on billions of customers provided by partners like AT&T and Verizon. Its market cap is about $33 billion. x.comÂ
Deutsche Bank says AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird progress and carrier joint ventures make SpaceX's spectrum deal less threatening than feared. It upgraded the shares from Neutral to Buy and sees potential for larger partners such as T-Mobile to join through joint ventures. GF institutional tracking shows fund additions, and recent filings indicate net insider buying. Continuous service still requires constellation deployment. AST SpaceMobile could reach $176. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's price is being set by whoever published most recently, because there is no recurring business yet underneath to argue with. Its 9% jump on Berenberg's $92 Buy initiation rested on figures from its Q2 release; within a quarter it traded at $133.67, sold converts at $149.20 and now sits at $61. Q2 revenue was $31.5 million, only $7.1 million from services, mostly government milestones. Cash is strong, and two quarters of operator-driven services growth would change the view. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile is still treated like a concept despite $2.34B in cash, more than $1.2B already contracted before full commercialization begins, and a target of $1B in revenue by 2027. x.comÂ
SpaceX's push to become a major mobile carrier makes a carrier-backed direct-to-cell oligopoly around AST SpaceMobile increasingly likely. Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and dozens of foreign operators have every incentive to preserve competition rather than hand a vertically integrated rival that much influence, and AST's wholesale model lets them extend networks, keep subscribers and share the economics. Execution and launch cadence remain critical, but the reward is massive. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's roughly $22 billion market cap leaves a large gap to its $1.1 trillion addressable market, the global mobile wireless market, and that gap is the opportunity. x.comÂ
