Hong Kong equities look weak for three reasons. Overseas capital is not returning as strongly as media suggest, equity fundraising in Hong Kong has surged, and southbound inflows from mainland China are far weaker than before. x.com 

Futu and UP Fintech's Tiger Brokers face what should be unprecedented penalties that strip their onshore gains and clear out illegal existing business in mainland China. Regulators will confiscate all illegal gains of the onshore entities of Tiger, Futu and Longbridge and set a two-year concentrated rectification period to clear out illegal existing business. Neither is one to buy on the news. x.com  x.com 

China's crackdown on illegal cross-border brokers such as Tiger, Futu and Longbridge is milder for Hong Kong stocks than it looks, and likely positive longer term. Existing accounts can only sell for two years, so selling is gradual rather than a stampede, and legal channels like Stock Connect, QDII and Wealth Connect are untouched. Once old positions clear, that money should return via compliant southbound flows, adding liquidity. The hit falls mainly on the brokers' own shares. x.com 

Hong Kong stocks will not rise without a strong narrative because liquidity is too poor. x.com 

Chinese stocks are back in a secular bear market, and a break of the USD/HKD peg, now nearing 7.85 again, would trigger financial armageddon. China large caps failed to hold above their monthly 200-period average, the Hang Seng is retesting key trend, and Hong Kong 10-year yields are rising. China has led global markets by about three quarters: it peaked in 1Q21 before US stocks and gold in 4Q21, and its bounce peaked in 4Q25, pointing to global weakness from 2Q26. This bet could be wrong. x.com 

Beijing's reported plan to sell hundreds of billions in US bonds to support Chinese stocks makes Chinese equities extremely bullish. The aim is to make China's market look stronger than the US and attract investors worldwide. A massive US bond selloff would put enormous pressure on global markets. x.com 

Chinese stocks are uninvestable for long-term investors because the value created goes to the Communist Party, not shareholders. The Chinese index is down 16% since 1991 while the S&P 500 rose 1,570% and the Nasdaq 3,440%, and Alibaba has gained just 27.8% in 12 years since its IPO. When companies grow too strong, the party hits them with megafines, sidelines founders like Jack Ma or blocks game releases as at Tencent, and foreign investors own only VIE contracts, not shares. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

China-heavy emerging-market funds carry a lasting governance risk: autocratic leadership has little alignment with foreign shareholders. Chinese shares may offer tactical trades, but a permanent rerating is hard until the CCP is gone. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hong Kong stocks are among the best destinations for global money, combining low valuations, high dividends, steady inflows and a repricing of Chinese assets. Southbound buying hit a record HK$37.2B on March 9 after a sharp drop left quality assets cheap. The Hang Seng trades near 12-13x earnings, versus 20x-plus for the US and 22x-plus for Japan. Iran turmoil has dented Dubai as a haven, Middle East inquiries about Hong Kong family offices rose 50%, and regulators are curbing insider trading. … Show more

Futu and UP Fintech's Tiger Brokers face a regulatory threat to their core mainland Chinese business. China's CSRC and seven other government departments launched a crackdown on illegal cross-border securities, futures and fund business, opening investigations and issuing advance penalty notices against Futu, Tiger Brokers and Longbridge. They are accused of providing brokerage, margin financing, fund sales and futures services to mainland investors without approval. x.com