A rising USD/CNH is the strongest threat to US stocks because it would spread China's deflationary spiral to the US and the AI/semiconductor bubble. It matters more than the dollar, yields or oil, if USD/CNH first bottoms at its monthly 200-period average. x.com 

The bid for US Treasuries is thinning beyond Japan, leaving the US needing new buyers to fund its borrowing. Net purchases by the most US-aligned countries are down more than 60% to their lowest since 2021; South Korea sold a record $23.8 billion, the most since 1977. x.com 

Chinese stocks are back in a secular bear market, and a break of the USD/HKD peg, now nearing 7.85 again, would trigger financial armageddon. China large caps failed to hold above their monthly 200-period average, the Hang Seng is retesting key trend, and Hong Kong 10-year yields are rising. China has led global markets by about three quarters: it peaked in 1Q21 before US stocks and gold in 4Q21, and its bounce peaked in 4Q25, pointing to global weakness from 2Q26. This bet could be wrong. x.com 

Trump's state visit to China is a reasonable reason to be bullish on Chinese stocks, yet surprisingly few are paying attention to an event that anchors the most important bilateral relationship between the two powers. Trump himself is an ideological moderate on China, possibly more so than the Biden administration's China hawks, even as the whole US government has turned hawkish. Unlike the Democrats, he has wiggle room, and China knows it. x.com  x.com 

The 10-year yield above 5% limits how far the US equity rally can stretch, even as stocks shrugged off the Fed hold. Two policymakers wanted a hike, the 10-year rose to about 5.04%, and bonds sold while all four major indices closed higher. Rates need to cool for the rally to extend. x.com 

China large caps have one of the worst charts out there, and sooner or later the rest of the world will impose heavy tariffs on China, raising the question of what Beijing does when it gets desperate. x.com 

China is following the policy path the US and Europe took over a decade ago, which should drive a sweeping structural bull market in Chinese equities spanning several Kitchin cycles. Per @baoshu88, China is moving away from GDP-only targets, with fiscal discipline narrowing the cumulative deficit for the first time in over two years and new hidden local government debt now banned. Lower macro cyclicality and volatility should pass into equities, steadily compressing Chinese stocks' volatility. … Show more

China-heavy emerging-market funds carry a lasting governance risk: autocratic leadership has little alignment with foreign shareholders. Chinese shares may offer tactical trades, but a permanent rerating is hard until the CCP is gone. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hong Kong equities look weak for three reasons. Overseas capital is not returning as strongly as media suggest, equity fundraising in Hong Kong has surged, and southbound inflows from mainland China are far weaker than before. x.com 

The US dollar faces debasement because papering over the debt burden requires destroying its purchasing power to reduce debt-to-GDP. With no new buyer for US debt, bond rates will keep climbing: debt is $40 trillion versus $5 trillion in 2007, with a $2 trillion annual deficit and debt at 123% of GDP. Getting rates back to 2.5% would require a complete financial reset that destroys the dollar and inflates debt away; otherwise rates will climb to 6-9% in the short to medium term. x.com  x.com