Hong Kong stocks will not rise without a strong narrative because liquidity is too poor. x.com 

China's ban on offshore brokers serving mainland residents means a long-term liquidity drain for Chinese ADRs and Hong Kong stocks. Eight ministries jointly barred foreign institutions from cross-border securities services; existing users can only sell for two years before forced account closure, and Futu was fined up to 1.85 billion yuan. With mainland retail investors' route overseas sealed off, new money will find it increasingly hard to enter these markets. x.com 

Hong Kong stocks are among the best destinations for global money, combining low valuations, high dividends, steady inflows and a repricing of Chinese assets. Southbound buying hit a record HK$37.2B on March 9 after a sharp drop left quality assets cheap. The Hang Seng trades near 12-13x earnings, versus 20x-plus for the US and 22x-plus for Japan. Iran turmoil has dented Dubai as a haven, Middle East inquiries about Hong Kong family offices rose 50%, and regulators are curbing insider trading. … Show more

Chinese stocks are back in a secular bear market, and a break of the USD/HKD peg, now nearing 7.85 again, would trigger financial armageddon. China large caps failed to hold above their monthly 200-period average, the Hang Seng is retesting key trend, and Hong Kong 10-year yields are rising. China has led global markets by about three quarters: it peaked in 1Q21 before US stocks and gold in 4Q21, and its bounce peaked in 4Q25, pointing to global weakness from 2Q26. This bet could be wrong. x.com 

China large caps have one of the worst charts out there, and sooner or later the rest of the world will impose heavy tariffs on China, raising the question of what Beijing does when it gets desperate. x.com 

China's crackdown on illegal cross-border brokers such as Tiger, Futu and Longbridge is milder for Hong Kong stocks than it looks, and likely positive longer term. Existing accounts can only sell for two years, so selling is gradual rather than a stampede, and legal channels like Stock Connect, QDII and Wealth Connect are untouched. Once old positions clear, that money should return via compliant southbound flows, adding liquidity. The hit falls mainly on the brokers' own shares. x.com 

Chinese equities, including Alibaba and KWEB, look set for a rapid reversal: after months of profit-taking and decade lows in many names while US markets reached highs, this morning's inflow is a positive sign. There is still value in many of these names. x.com 

China-heavy emerging-market funds carry a lasting governance risk: autocratic leadership has little alignment with foreign shareholders. Chinese shares may offer tactical trades, but a permanent rerating is hard until the CCP is gone. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Beijing's reported plan to sell hundreds of billions in US bonds to support Chinese stocks makes Chinese equities extremely bullish. The aim is to make China's market look stronger than the US and attract investors worldwide. A massive US bond selloff would put enormous pressure on global markets. x.com 

Chinese stocks remain a value trap because cheap valuations don't matter if shareholders keep getting diluted. Per Bloomberg, Alibaba plans to raise about $10.2 billion by selling 710 million shares at HK$112.7 each, a 3.6% discount to Friday's ADR close. x.com