Chinese stocks are back in a secular bear market, and a break of the USD/HKD peg, now nearing 7.85 again, would trigger financial armageddon. China large caps failed to hold above their monthly 200-period average, the Hang Seng is retesting key trend, and Hong Kong 10-year yields are rising. China has led global markets by about three quarters: it peaked in 1Q21 before US stocks and gold in 4Q21, and its bounce peaked in 4Q25, pointing to global weakness from 2Q26. This bet could be wrong. x.com 

China-heavy emerging-market funds carry a lasting governance risk: autocratic leadership has little alignment with foreign shareholders. Chinese shares may offer tactical trades, but a permanent rerating is hard until the CCP is gone. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Chinese stocks should benefit from the development raised in a post the author replies to, though which individual name to pick is unclear. x.com 

Chinese stocks are uninvestable for long-term investors because the value created goes to the Communist Party, not shareholders. The Chinese index is down 16% since 1991 while the S&P 500 rose 1,570% and the Nasdaq 3,440%, and Alibaba has gained just 27.8% in 12 years since its IPO. When companies grow too strong, the party hits them with megafines, sidelines founders like Jack Ma or blocks game releases as at Tencent, and foreign investors own only VIE contracts, not shares. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Hong Kong equities look weak for three reasons. Overseas capital is not returning as strongly as media suggest, equity fundraising in Hong Kong has surged, and southbound inflows from mainland China are far weaker than before. x.com 

Beijing's reported plan to sell hundreds of billions in US bonds to support Chinese stocks makes Chinese equities extremely bullish. The aim is to make China's market look stronger than the US and attract investors worldwide. A massive US bond selloff would put enormous pressure on global markets. x.com 

Chinese internet stocks could draw renewed attention and a re-rating as President Trump's May visit to China opens a brief honeymoon in US-China relations. Recent geopolitics have left China in a relatively favorable position, the sector sits near a relative bottom, and its largest holdings' fundamentals keep improving. The sector finally moved on Trump's arrival in Beijing. If the talks go well, strength can continue; if they go badly, it will likely fall back and the position would be exited. … Show more

Chinese equities, including Alibaba and KWEB, look set for a rapid reversal: after months of profit-taking and decade lows in many names while US markets reached highs, this morning's inflow is a positive sign. There is still value in many of these names. x.com 

China is following the policy path the US and Europe took over a decade ago, which should drive a sweeping structural bull market in Chinese equities spanning several Kitchin cycles. Per @baoshu88, China is moving away from GDP-only targets, with fiscal discipline narrowing the cumulative deficit for the first time in over two years and new hidden local government debt now banned. Lower macro cyclicality and volatility should pass into equities, steadily compressing Chinese stocks' volatility. … Show more

Emerging-market stocks are much weaker than the index suggests: excluding the top three stocks, the emerging-markets ETF is heavily down. As Scott Charts notes, Taiwan now has a bigger weight than China despite a far smaller economy, and Samsung and SK hynix together outweigh all of India. x.com