Brazilian equities are early in a reversal that has only just started. Emerging markets are running in an opposite cycle to the US market and have begun to turn, and Brazil looks the strongest of them and serves as a safe haven. x.com 

Chinese internet stocks remain a poor investment because the government treats successful companies as Communist Party vehicles when convenient. The KWEB fund is flat after 13 years while inflation rose 43%, and nearly every company hyped as the next Google disappointed; Beijing forced Jack Ma out and takes from firms that earn too much. China's population is shrinking fast and per-capita spending power is lagging, so capital is better deployed in the US, then Latin America and Southeast Asia. … Show more

Emerging-market stocks are outperforming because of where AI capex lands, not a weak dollar. US cloud spending flows to wafers, HBM, packaging, ASIC design and rack power from TSMC, Samsung, SK hynix, MediaTek and Delta Electronics; Korean stocks led despite a 12% won slump. Cap weighting amplifies this, as those names near a quarter of the index. EM trades at about 12x forward earnings versus 20x for developed markets, and Morgan Stanley sees 40% EPS growth in 2026. x.com  x.com 

Chinese equities, including Alibaba and KWEB, look set for a rapid reversal: after months of profit-taking and decade lows in many names while US markets reached highs, this morning's inflow is a positive sign. There is still value in many of these names. x.com 

Semiconductors have a window to keep rising into the end of September, though this is repair, not a new era. A week ago almost nothing in the complex was above its short-term averages; now nearly everything is, and semis jumped from the bottom third to the top five of a breadth-weighted sector leaderboard as money left defensives. The macro regime flipped to risk-on mid-move. But no name is at a new high, and fading daily liquidity points to October chop and a real cooloff by mid-month. x.com  … Show more

Emerging-market equities are an alternative way to play the memory rally as individual memory stocks such as Sandisk and Micron become expensive. Options on the emerging-markets index offer substantial potential gains without the hefty premiums memory options now carry, with plenty of liquidity in longer-dated contracts. The index's top holdings are essentially TSMC and South Korea, and it is breaking into all-time highs from levels last seen in 2007. x.com 

Korean equities' bigger picture is concerning because breadth has collapsed, with the KOSPI held up only by two stocks that make up half the index. The KOSDAQ has erased all its gains since April 2025 and trades near six-year lows, while the KOSPI is down 46% in six weeks after twice testing its 200-day average. A short-term bounce of about 20% to fill this week's gap is possible. x.com 

Semiconductors still look likely to lag on a risk-adjusted basis, even if Treasury intervention such as yield-curve control changes the broader picture. They should have been rallying hard this week and are not acting right for bulls, suggesting something is brewing, probably a capex disappointment. Hyperscalers may be closer to another leg up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Emerging-market equities have broken out of a 20-year base with institutional support behind the move. Massive institutional accumulation came as 20-year resistance flipped to support, notable institutional put sellers have since appeared, and early-year resistance has now also flipped to support. The long-term position stays. x.com 

The sharp rebound in semiconductor and memory stocks does not confirm a durable bottom; many may stall below prior highs and form lower highs, making this a reflexive bounce within a broader correction. Unlike IREN and CoreWeave, semis and memory have not reached compelling valuations, and the backdrop is poor, with the 30-year yield higher and GDP estimates below expectations. The broader AI infrastructure theme remains extremely bullish. x.com