Namzes Cycles
Hurst Cycle & Technical Analyst, Commodities/Crypto/Equity Indices, Risk Management Background
Korean equities' bigger picture is concerning because breadth has collapsed, with the KOSPI held up only by two stocks that make up half the index. The KOSDAQ has erased all its gains since April 2025 and trades near six-year lows, while the KOSPI is down 46% in six weeks after twice testing its 200-day average. A short-term bounce of about 20% to fill this week's gap is possible. x.com
Korean equities look like a blow-off top showing the first signs of reversal. After a 20% flush, the KOSPI is forming another divergent top on the weekly chart: it is 183% above its 200-week average, over four times its April 2025 low, with dozens of unfilled gaps below and half the index in two stocks riding AI memory capex. Confirmation needs follow-through next week and a break back inside the main channel. First real support is 24% lower; the ideal path is a July low, a bounce, then October. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Korean equities have become essentially a two-stock index, and conditioned dip-buying there will eventually end in a lot of pain. Since March the KOSPI has drawn down 20%, 8%, 13%, 17% and now 13%, rebounding quickly each time, which trains investors to buy every dip. That can keep working, possibly for years, until the last time, and no one knows when that will be. Buying because it worked last time is not a strategy. x.com
Retail leverage and AI concentration have fueled the Korean equities rout. The KOSPI fell more than 14% in a week, its worst weekly decline since 2008. Korean equities will fall further if the rout in SK hynix and Samsung continues, though some dip buyers may already be lining up. x.com x.com
Korean equities have a central role in the AI trade because Samsung and SK hynix supply most of the memory it needs. Despite the shakeout, the KOSPI leads the major markets shown at roughly +36% this year. The bullish lean faces a flow warning: Korean semiconductor ETF 20-day flows fell from nearly +$4B in June to about -$703M by October 18 as the index approaches rising support. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
South Korean equities look like a bubble about to burst because the KOSPI's 3.5x rise in 12 months, from 2,500 to above 8,500, rests on just two companies, Samsung and SK hynix. An index that concentrated is a trade, not a market, and parabolic trades like this break hard. x.com
The PCE release will knock the bottom out of the KOSPI. The index already looks about to erase yesterday's gains. x.com
The South Korean president's alarming appeal amid the KOSPI selloff aligns with a market bottom, not a top. The KOSPI is deep in Wave C, and its pain looks nearly over. x.com
Korean equities are in trouble when accounts that never followed the KOSPI until a month or so ago start posting about it. x.com
Korean equities look exposed because the won's collapse is part of the AI crisis, even as many investors have recently become interested in the KOSPI and SK Hynix. Per @GlobalMktObserv, foreign investors have sold KOSPI stocks for nine straight sessions, with $3.4 billion of outflows in one day concentrated in tech, and year-to-date foreign outflows near a record $55 billion, bought by domestic retail investors. x.com
Korean equities look near a bottom as retail investors who levered long at the KOSPI top now short it at the lows. After new rules effective July 31 raised the minimum deposit for single-stock leveraged ETFs to ₩30M, retail net-sold over ₩1 trillion of single-stock leverage on day one, led by SK hynix and Samsung products, and bought about ₩500bn of index inverse ETFs instead, led by a 2x KOSPI inverse fund. x.com x.com
Korean equities are correcting like an altcoin after moving like one, going from euphoria to a bear market in barely a month. A rush of new investors, leverage and AI-chip hype drove the KOSPI up too fast, and much of the drop is that excess being flushed out, with war fears and rising oil adding pressure. x.com
