Fund.TBD
Swing Trader, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Korean equities have become essentially a two-stock index, and conditioned dip-buying there will eventually end in a lot of pain. Since March the KOSPI has drawn down 20%, 8%, 13%, 17% and now 13%, rebounding quickly each time, which trains investors to buy every dip. That can keep working, possibly for years, until the last time, and no one knows when that will be. Buying because it worked last time is not a strategy. x.comÂ
Korean equities' bigger picture is concerning because breadth has collapsed, with the KOSPI held up only by two stocks that make up half the index. The KOSDAQ has erased all its gains since April 2025 and trades near six-year lows, while the KOSPI is down 46% in six weeks after twice testing its 200-day average. A short-term bounce of about 20% to fill this week's gap is possible. x.comÂ
South Korean equities look like a bubble about to burst because the KOSPI's 3.5x rise in 12 months, from 2,500 to above 8,500, rests on just two companies, Samsung and SK hynix. An index that concentrated is a trade, not a market, and parabolic trades like this break hard. x.comÂ
Korean equities have a central role in the AI trade because Samsung and SK hynix supply most of the memory it needs. Despite the shakeout, the KOSPI leads the major markets shown at roughly +36% this year. The bullish lean faces a flow warning: Korean semiconductor ETF 20-day flows fell from nearly +$4B in June to about -$703M by October 18 as the index approaches rising support. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Retail leverage and AI concentration have fueled the Korean equities rout. The KOSPI fell more than 14% in a week, its worst weekly decline since 2008. Korean equities will fall further if the rout in SK hynix and Samsung continues, though some dip buyers may already be lining up. x.com x.comÂ
The PCE release will knock the bottom out of the KOSPI. The index already looks about to erase yesterday's gains. x.comÂ
The South Korean president's alarming appeal amid the KOSPI selloff aligns with a market bottom, not a top. The KOSPI is deep in Wave C, and its pain looks nearly over. x.comÂ
Korean equities are in trouble when accounts that never followed the KOSPI until a month or so ago start posting about it. x.comÂ
Korean stocks are falling on positioning and sentiment rather than fundamentals, and the KOSPI looks headed toward the 7,120-7,250 area after a precise rejection. If the market stays calm after SK hynix's US listing, that would signal another short-term downtrend. x.com x.comÂ
Korean equities are too cheap to stay compressed, with the KOSPI now cheaper than during the 2008 financial crisis. Its companies are set to make record profits for the next five years and beyond, so the index has to shoot higher. Posts the author replies to push back that the index is mostly two companies in a low-multiple industry and that today's high cyclical memory earnings make it look cheaper than it is. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Korean equities' extreme volatility is a warning, not a buying opportunity, as foreign investors keep exiting into the chip boom. Foreign capital has been a net seller for five straight months, over $32 billion in June alone, amid fears of AI over-investment and an earnings peak, while retail leveraged single-stock ETFs stretch technicals; the KOSPI has hit seven circuit breakers this year. A 3% GDP forecast upgrade doesn't change that, and a Bank of Korea hike could force a reset. x.comÂ
