Feroce Research
Thematic Research, Technical/Macro/Fundamental Analysis & Quantitative Positioning
Emerging-market equities are an alternative way to play the memory rally as individual memory stocks such as Sandisk and Micron become expensive. Options on the emerging-markets index offer substantial potential gains without the hefty premiums memory options now carry, with plenty of liquidity in longer-dated contracts. The index's top holdings are essentially TSMC and South Korea, and it is breaking into all-time highs from levels last seen in 2007. x.comÂ
Emerging markets equities have broken out after two decades as they go through the biggest tech revolution in their history. Buying at these prices is not chasing; it is still extremely early in what this move can unfold over the rest of the year, much as energy and metals ran after breaking their own two-decade-old highs. x.comÂ
Emerging-market stocks are outperforming because of where AI capex lands, not a weak dollar. US cloud spending flows to wafers, HBM, packaging, ASIC design and rack power from TSMC, Samsung, SK hynix, MediaTek and Delta Electronics; Korean stocks led despite a 12% won slump. Cap weighting amplifies this, as those names near a quarter of the index. EM trades at about 12x forward earnings versus 20x for developed markets, and Morgan Stanley sees 40% EPS growth in 2026. x.com x.comÂ
Everspin Technologies is a unique memory supercycle play alongside Micron and SanDisk, as the only public standalone pure-play on MRAM, which pairs SRAM's speed with keeping data without power. TSMC and Samsung offer MRAM only as an embedded feature. Everspin has similar beta to Micron and SanDisk on a much smaller market cap, so it should swing harder, and it just had phenomenal earnings. The weekly chart shows strong support; the last buy signal brought a roughly 450% rally. x.com x.comÂ
Emerging-market stocks are much weaker than the index suggests: excluding the top three stocks, the emerging-markets ETF is heavily down. As Scott Charts notes, Taiwan now has a bigger weight than China despite a far smaller economy, and Samsung and SK hynix together outweigh all of India. x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF looks vulnerable because its late launch fits the pattern of Wall Street selling hot themes to the public shortly before they top. DRAM was a monster trade of 2026 in April and May, led by Sandisk and Micron. It topped two months after debut and is rolling into Stage 4 against its 10-week EMA; the similarly late-launched FOTO photonics ETF topped in just two weeks. x.comÂ
Memory should outperform over the next 6-12 months because demand is not slowing and supply is not catching up. The DRAM ETF is the easiest way to gain exposure, with Micron, Samsung and SK hynix as its top three positions. x.comÂ
The Tema Memory ETF offers a way to play the memory boom without picking the winning stock. Memory chip revenue is forecast to rise from $200B in 2025 to over $700B in 2027, but HBM, DRAM and NAND don't always move together, so being right on the theme can still mean picking the wrong ticker. The fund holds 18 names led by SanDisk, Kioxia and SK hynix, including Korean and Japanese stocks hard to buy from US accounts. It is concentrated, new and charges 0.75%, so size it as a theme bet. x.comÂ
Micron is the better memory buy here because Korean stocks have traded poorly and SK hynix's US ADR carries a massive premium over its Korean listing. SK hynix remains the preferred company; HBM is favored over NAND, making Micron and SK hynix preferable to SanDisk. Memory stocks look cheap, with very attractive risk/reward at these levels, and are unlikely to stay cheap for long. x.comÂ
China's domestic market lets YMTC and CXMT threaten Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix without entering US products. China receives 15-25% of smartphones and PCs and is on a path to at least 20-30% memory share over the next several years; current leaders are much too optimistic. History suggests at least a near-term semiconductor rally even if the AI trade has topped. It likely has not: agentic AI should give the trade room to run into 2027. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix and Samsung preferred remain bullish memory bets because the Korean names have a faster payback than Micron. The comparison is 3-4 years versus roughly eight for Micron, though Micron seems to be working fine. AI-trade tail risk could still cause steep losses in these names, as can happen even with low-P/E stocks. x.comÂ
Low multiples give AI infrastructure good risk/reward as demand outruns supply and agentic workloads have runway. TSMC at 17x 2027E EPS appears to have all the accelerator and CPU demand it can handle this year and next; Ultra Clean is at 8x, MKS 12x, TTM 13x, Nvidia 14x and Celestica 15x. Kioxia at 3x and Samsung preferreds at 2.5x carry a big discount on pricing and cycle fears. Multiples imply a 2027 capex peak and meaningful drop; 2028 capex growth is expected, but below 2027's rate. x.com … Show more
