Martin Bradstreet
Investor & Programmer, Former Poker Player
SK hynix and Samsung preferred remain bullish memory bets because the Korean names have a faster payback than Micron. The comparison is 3-4 years versus roughly eight for Micron, though Micron seems to be working fine. AI-trade tail risk could still cause steep losses in these names, as can happen even with low-P/E stocks. x.com
Memory stocks such as SK hynix look cheap with sentiment near all-time lows, though the sector has largely delivered on its promises. The narrative that CXMT will flood the market with cheap memory is odd: CXMT has sold memory for years, and even a commodity sells at market price. Chinese AI players such as ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba and DeepSeek will need all their memory, and long-term inference demand from China's 1.41 billion people will be extreme. The flip to optical makes little sense. x.com
Micron is the better memory buy here because Korean stocks have traded poorly and SK hynix's US ADR carries a massive premium over its Korean listing. SK hynix remains the preferred company; HBM is favored over NAND, making Micron and SK hynix preferable to SanDisk. Memory stocks look cheap, with very attractive risk/reward at these levels, and are unlikely to stay cheap for long. x.com
SK hynix's surging earnings challenge the idea that commodity memory profits are about to vanish. The attached report says third-quarter operating profit rose more than sevenfold and its operating margin reached 80%; analysts quoted there expect the earnings climb to continue at least through next year. Micron and Samsung are named alongside SK hynix. x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.com
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.com
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.com
More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.com
A worsening memory shortage in 2027 could favor Micron, SanDisk and SK hynix as AI stocks. Samsung warns that the shortage will worsen then. x.com
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix face a buyer backlash over memory pricing in a cyclical business. Elon Musk called Micron reasonable about future prices and other suppliers extortionate, warning customers would remember; the remarks seem aimed at Samsung and SK hynix. Micron appears to be focusing on long-term contracts. x.com x.com x.com
A four-year memory supply shortage could make low forward earnings multiples compelling if long-term agreements hold. At forward P/Es of 3.5 for Samsung, 5 for Micron and 3.1 for SK hynix, the sub-4 names could return roughly 100% over four years and still retain value even if margins subsequently compress sharply. x.com x.com
