Babyfolio
Software Engineer, AI Infrastructure Investor
Micron is the better memory buy here because Korean stocks have traded poorly and SK hynix's US ADR carries a massive premium over its Korean listing. SK hynix remains the preferred company; HBM is favored over NAND, making Micron and SK hynix preferable to SanDisk. Memory stocks look cheap, with very attractive risk/reward at these levels, and are unlikely to stay cheap for long. x.com
Memory remains bullish because Nvidia's lower-HBM GPU configurations reflect constrained HBM supply, not weaker demand. Nvidia would ship more HBM if it could at scale. Less HBM per GPU can mean more GPUs shipped and potentially more total HBM consumed, so HBM is not losing share. @aadilbassa_ adds that Nvidia has said it could grow faster if supply allowed, and does not see the HBM shortage ending before 2030. x.com x.com x.com
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.com
SK hynix and Samsung preferred remain bullish memory bets because the Korean names have a faster payback than Micron. The comparison is 3-4 years versus roughly eight for Micron, though Micron seems to be working fine. AI-trade tail risk could still cause steep losses in these names, as can happen even with low-P/E stocks. x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
Micron is the better company than SK hynix because its growth guidance and margins are stronger, though SK hynix is still a great company with further growth ahead. Micron's revenue grew 379% year over year versus SK hynix's 328%; its latest-quarter annualized GAAP P/E is about 7 versus 9 for SK hynix, or 6.5 for SK hynix after adjusting for currency and Kioxia charges. SK hynix's employee profit sharing weighs on its margins. x.com x.com x.com x.com
SK hynix is better owned on the Korean exchange than through its US listing. The US shares trade at a market value more than $300B above the Korean shares, a 35% premium, and the ADR adds country, compliance and exchange risks. Investors wanting US-listed memory exposure could simply combine Micron and Sandisk. x.com
Buying the DRAM dip looks too risky now because CXMT's ambitious next-generation 4F plan and SK hynix's aggressive production expansion raise supply concerns for memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix and Samsung. CXMT is unlikely to become a serious competitive threat, but it could still weigh on storage-stock sentiment. x.com x.com
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.com
SK hynix remains a buying opportunity, with its US ADR premium over Korean shares now at an all-time low of 32.66%. x.com x.com
SK hynix and other Korean memory makers' aggressive price hikes invite customers to optimize memory use, undermining the case for 90% margins despite a long-term shortage. Memory is the only layer raising cost per token. Elon Musk described Micron's future pricing as reasonable and other suppliers' as extortionate, warning that today's customers would not forget; exorbitant long-term contracts compound that risk. x.com x.com
SK hynix's sold-out memory capacity bodes well for Micron because it sells into the same shortage. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029; deals with 14 customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, and HBM demand is twice what it can make. x.com
