AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
Emerging-market equities have broken out of a 20-year base with institutional support behind the move. Massive institutional accumulation came as 20-year resistance flipped to support, notable institutional put sellers have since appeared, and early-year resistance has now also flipped to support. The long-term position stays. x.comÂ
Emerging-market stocks are being heavily accumulated after a 20-year resistance level flipped into support. The first notable pullback since the new all-time high was bought on the largest daily buy volume since November 2022, retesting the prior high, with insane accumulation off the largest institutional support on record. Whether that was the bottom or retail will keep selling into new highs is still open. x.comÂ
Emerging-market equities are an alternative way to play the memory rally as individual memory stocks such as Sandisk and Micron become expensive. Options on the emerging-markets index offer substantial potential gains without the hefty premiums memory options now carry, with plenty of liquidity in longer-dated contracts. The index's top holdings are essentially TSMC and South Korea, and it is breaking into all-time highs from levels last seen in 2007. x.comÂ
Emerging-market stocks are outperforming because of where AI capex lands, not a weak dollar. US cloud spending flows to wafers, HBM, packaging, ASIC design and rack power from TSMC, Samsung, SK hynix, MediaTek and Delta Electronics; Korean stocks led despite a 12% won slump. Cap weighting amplifies this, as those names near a quarter of the index. EM trades at about 12x forward earnings versus 20x for developed markets, and Morgan Stanley sees 40% EPS growth in 2026. x.com x.comÂ
Emerging-market stocks are much weaker than the index suggests: excluding the top three stocks, the emerging-markets ETF is heavily down. As Scott Charts notes, Taiwan now has a bigger weight than China despite a far smaller economy, and Samsung and SK hynix together outweigh all of India. x.comÂ
AMD's strong fundamentals are now clearly reflected in the price, so risk/reward no longer favors buyers after the stock became overextended. The opportunity is not what it was last year in the low $100s. This is not necessarily a call for a major top, but Chinese equities, crypto and healthcare, still in high-timeframe accumulation ranges, look like better opportunities. Off-exchange short interest in AMD is around 50%, a sign institutions are hedging their spot exposure. x.com x.comÂ
