Theresa Perrin
Self-Directed Investor & Trader, Former Hospice Nurse
Chinese equities are the safety play because China's economy is coming out of a recession that the US is entering. Brian Tycangco notes that Chinese stocks offer some of the best value and that a reversion to the mean would see them outperform the S&P 500 again, as they have in 10 of the last 25 years. x.com
Alibaba is worth buying, as it has reached a high value-for-money range. That agrees with a reply summing up the view as simply: buy Alibaba. x.com
Alibaba is sitting on its 200-week moving average just as China announces a stimulus plan, timing that supports the shares. x.com
Chinese internet stocks remain a poor investment because the government treats successful companies as Communist Party vehicles when convenient. The KWEB fund is flat after 13 years while inflation rose 43%, and nearly every company hyped as the next Google disappointed; Beijing forced Jack Ma out and takes from firms that earn too much. China's population is shrinking fast and per-capita spending power is lagging, so capital is better deployed in the US, then Latin America and Southeast Asia. … Show more
China tech stocks could rally as an underappreciated Trump visit to China nears, with almost no one talking about it. China tech earnings are also on deck, and some of the money that rotated out of China into Korea and Japan might start flowing back. x.com
Alibaba, JD.com, Nio and Baidu are criminally undervalued and could act as a hedge in the next broad market downtrend, over a 12-18 month horizon. Fundamentals explain the underperformance: retail sales turned negative year over year and new home sales are down 27%, showing years of PBoC easing have failed to reach the real economy. But that is exactly when the greatest buying opportunities form, much as with semiconductors like AMD in late 2024 and early 2025. x.com x.com
Alibaba is no longer worth owning when better opportunities exist. The case for it as a China hedge was a macro feeling applied to a single company, and it ignored Jack Ma being yanked away and a lack of cloud growth while leaning on share buybacks and looking too cheap to ignore. Despite its discount to US companies, other stocks, such as GitLab and Airbnb, now look much more compelling. x.com
Alibaba is a contrarian trade because accelerating demand for relatively cheaper compute is very underappreciated, and China's cloud market is still in its infancy versus the US. Alibaba is a consensus short as upside from closed-source AI looks illusory. x.com x.com
Alibaba and Baidu are a no-brainer buy because Chinese AI stocks trade at very low valuations while China is determined to race the US in AI. x.com
Alibaba is not a cheap Amazon, and cheap can stay cheap for a long time. It trades at 2015 prices, while since 2015 Amazon has gone from $34 to $250, Alphabet from $39 to $344 and QQQ from $100 to about $770, eleven years of missed compounding. Chinese companies should not be assumed to follow the playbook of American tech giants, just as Tencent is not Alphabet and BYD is not Tesla. x.com
Alibaba should be taken seriously within the next three months, trading at just 10 times 2028 earnings. x.com x.com