Alibaba is sitting on its 200-week moving average just as China announces a stimulus plan, timing that supports the shares. x.comÂ
The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Chinese equities, including Alibaba and KWEB, look set for a rapid reversal: after months of profit-taking and decade lows in many names while US markets reached highs, this morning's inflow is a positive sign. There is still value in many of these names. x.comÂ
Alibaba's offering looks leaked and already priced in, and Friday's options activity points much higher. Big money dumped the stock Friday because of the leak, so at worst it retests its China low before moving up, and the stock is already way too cheap. x.com x.comÂ
Alibaba is not a cheap Amazon, and cheap can stay cheap for a long time. It trades at 2015 prices, while since 2015 Amazon has gone from $34 to $250, Alphabet from $39 to $344 and QQQ from $100 to about $770, eleven years of missed compounding. Chinese companies should not be assumed to follow the playbook of American tech giants, just as Tencent is not Alphabet and BYD is not Tesla. x.comÂ
Alibaba looks undervalued at a 52-week low, with a $229B market cap against expected 2027 operating income of $90B and double-digit growth anticipated for the next few years. x.comÂ
Alibaba is worth buying, as it has reached a high value-for-money range. That agrees with a reply summing up the view as simply: buy Alibaba. x.comÂ
Alibaba's HK$80 billion share sale looks like a grab-the-money-and-run move before the AI party ends, with base rates set to go ballistic as in 1972-1973. @AKL_019 notes the HK$112.70 price is 39.5% below the 52-week high, and asks why it didn't raise money in late 2025 or early 2026. @stevehou notes Alibaba is selling stock for AI without new highs or market validation of its AI efforts. In capital markets, the stupid but practical reason is usually the right one, as with SpaceX's fundraising. … Show more
Alibaba should be taken seriously within the next three months, trading at just 10 times 2028 earnings. x.com x.comÂ
Alibaba can reach $130 near term, with heavy insider buying cushioning its recent drop. CEO Eddie Wu and chairman Joe Tsai bought about $15 million of shares, Tsai added another $10.4 million, and Jack Ma reportedly bought around $76 million in recent days, helping the stock back above $120. x.comÂ
Alibaba is no longer worth owning when better opportunities exist. The case for it as a China hedge was a macro feeling applied to a single company, and it ignored Jack Ma being yanked away and a lack of cloud growth while leaning on share buybacks and looking too cheap to ignore. Despite its discount to US companies, other stocks, such as GitLab and Airbnb, now look much more compelling. x.comÂ
Alibaba is inefficiently priced below the $270s, with monthly accumulation patterns and a support/resistance flip out of a multi-year base. On the yearly chart it is trying to defend its all-time AVWAP and enter a bullish trend for the first time since 2019. Its largest accumulation on record lies in the $230s, and the real, stable move comes if $230 is reclaimed. Like Palantir's drop to $7, this dead-money stretch offers great risk/reward for a long-term winner. x.com x.comÂ