Alibaba is a contrarian trade because accelerating demand for relatively cheaper compute is very underappreciated, and China's cloud market is still in its infancy versus the US. Alibaba is a consensus short as upside from closed-source AI looks illusory. x.com  x.com 

Alibaba should be taken seriously within the next three months, trading at just 10 times 2028 earnings. x.com  x.com 

Alibaba is not a cheap Amazon, and cheap can stay cheap for a long time. It trades at 2015 prices, while since 2015 Amazon has gone from $34 to $250, Alphabet from $39 to $344 and QQQ from $100 to about $770, eleven years of missed compounding. Chinese companies should not be assumed to follow the playbook of American tech giants, just as Tencent is not Alphabet and BYD is not Tesla. x.com 

Alibaba can reach $130 near term, with heavy insider buying cushioning its recent drop. CEO Eddie Wu and chairman Joe Tsai bought about $15 million of shares, Tsai added another $10.4 million, and Jack Ma reportedly bought around $76 million in recent days, helping the stock back above $120. x.com 

Alibaba is inefficiently priced below the $270s, with monthly accumulation patterns and a support/resistance flip out of a multi-year base. On the yearly chart it is trying to defend its all-time AVWAP and enter a bullish trend for the first time since 2019. Its largest accumulation on record lies in the $230s, and the real, stable move comes if $230 is reclaimed. Like Palantir's drop to $7, this dead-money stretch offers great risk/reward for a long-term winner. x.com  x.com 

Alibaba is no longer worth owning when better opportunities exist. The case for it as a China hedge was a macro feeling applied to a single company, and it ignored Jack Ma being yanked away and a lack of cloud growth while leaning on share buybacks and looking too cheap to ignore. Despite its discount to US companies, other stocks, such as GitLab and Airbnb, now look much more compelling. x.com 

Alibaba is worth buying, as it has reached a high value-for-money range. That agrees with a reply summing up the view as simply: buy Alibaba. x.com 

Alibaba is sitting on its 200-week moving average just as China announces a stimulus plan, timing that supports the shares. x.com 

Alibaba's new paradigm is issuing shares, which makes the stock unattractive unless it falls by half from here. The latest example is an HK$80B ($10.2B) share placement to fund its full-stack AI capabilities. x.com 

Alibaba has a decent bull case that the market is ignoring after pricing in dilution from its $10.2B stock sale. Most investors didn't look at why or how Alibaba raised the money. Insiders clearly saw it differently, adding over $100M in shares. A deeper top-down and bottom-up analysis with @AlphaPicks shows there is much more to the story than "dilution is bad". x.com