The US dollar will be sacrificed to grow the economy, as Treasury Secretary Bessent says the only way out of debt is to grow out of it. With debt at 121%, policymakers see one path forward, inflation and GDP growth, which makes savers losers like never before and argues for holding savings in assets that hedge inflation. The dollar's destruction began in 1970 and won't stop anytime soon, though it is not expected to fall within our lifetime. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The US dollar faces devaluation risk as major holders doubt the US can pay its debt without debasing the currency. Yields have been rising, and the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway's, plans deep cuts to its US Treasury holdings, signaling it sees no attractive real returns. Ray Dalio says the global monetary order is breaking down. x.com 

The US dollar is the key long against other currencies in a secular disinflationary era, with demographic decline worsened by years of QE and overly cheap money. More currencies should hit record lows against the dollar, with non-dollar bond markets breaking and financial assets repricing toward demographic decline. Japan is entering a demographic-collapse regime where the BoJ has no power left. Dollar/yen just hit a 40-year peak of 162.68, per FinancialJuice. x.com 

Early Treasury buying is mostly domestic, so falling rates can coincide with a falling US dollar. Foreign buying is expected later in the bust, when the dollar should reverse sharply higher; this does not bring the previously forecast dollar rebound forward. x.com 

The US dollar is overvalued and weakening as Asian surplus countries stop recycling their surpluses into dollar reserves, an external drain. Without that recycling, both yields and the currency are in price discovery. Ken Rogoff concluded that Asia not recycling would mean a lower dollar against Asian surplus currencies and higher nominal rates, both now happening. Per @DrDavidKass, Ed Yardeni blames the global bond rout on the yen-carry unwind; the explanations are not mutually exclusive. x.com  … Show more

The US dollar remains an easy long as the Fed turns hawkish, since the only way to control prices now is on the demand side, and that means rates go up. Kashkari's latest comments raise the question of whether the Fed has learned its lesson or is drifting toward Team Transitory 2.0. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

US Treasuries face rising yields because the US is running out of willing buyers for its debt. With about $40 trillion of debt and large deficits, foreign governments no longer want to finance America after errant trade policy and poor diplomacy, and capital has better places to go than government bonds. Bondholders have lost a ton in the past year. Higher rates will either curb fiscal bad behavior or create a crisis, since a 5% Treasury cannot last long without a debt spiral. x.com  x.com 

The dollar should catch a monster bid before any structural weakness, because fiat is a menu of bad choices and in a deleveraging no one reaches for euros or renminbi. If the US concludes it will not win in AI, there is a high probability the next step is to tank everything, and the dollar and US bonds would then be bid; the yen could also rise as carry trades unwind. Dollar strength comes first and leads to structural dollar weakness on the other side. x.com  x.com 

Excessive government spending is the cause of inflation, and it will keep devaluing the dollar until federal spending grows slower than GDP. @skorusARK notes the federal deficit reached $1.2 trillion in the first eight months of fiscal 2026. x.com