The US dollar faces debasement because papering over the debt burden requires destroying its purchasing power to reduce debt-to-GDP. With no new buyer for US debt, bond rates will keep climbing: debt is $40 trillion versus $5 trillion in 2007, with a $2 trillion annual deficit and debt at 123% of GDP. Getting rates back to 2.5% would require a complete financial reset that destroys the dollar and inflates debt away; otherwise rates will climb to 6-9% in the short to medium term. x.com  x.com 

Excessive government spending is the cause of inflation, and it will keep devaluing the dollar until federal spending grows slower than GDP. @skorusARK notes the federal deficit reached $1.2 trillion in the first eight months of fiscal 2026. x.com 

The US dollar looks more bullish than bearish because it is priced against other currencies that are hit harder by oil. Most countries' bond yields are rising, not just America's, and the US has the world's most dominant economy, which AI is accelerating relative to others. Still, trading currencies makes little sense when stocks are rising 25%+ a year. x.com 

The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The US dollar is the key long against other currencies in a secular disinflationary era, with demographic decline worsened by years of QE and overly cheap money. More currencies should hit record lows against the dollar, with non-dollar bond markets breaking and financial assets repricing toward demographic decline. Japan is entering a demographic-collapse regime where the BoJ has no power left. Dollar/yen just hit a 40-year peak of 162.68, per FinancialJuice. x.com 

The US dollar faces devaluation risk as major holders doubt the US can pay its debt without debasing the currency. Yields have been rising, and the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway's, plans deep cuts to its US Treasury holdings, signaling it sees no attractive real returns. Ray Dalio says the global monetary order is breaking down. x.com 

The US dollar is overvalued and weakening as Asian surplus countries stop recycling their surpluses into dollar reserves, an external drain. Without that recycling, both yields and the currency are in price discovery. Ken Rogoff concluded that Asia not recycling would mean a lower dollar against Asian surplus currencies and higher nominal rates, both now happening. Per @DrDavidKass, Ed Yardeni blames the global bond rout on the yen-carry unwind; the explanations are not mutually exclusive. x.com  … Show more

The US dollar remains an easy long as the Fed turns hawkish, since the only way to control prices now is on the demand side, and that means rates go up. Kashkari's latest comments raise the question of whether the Fed has learned its lesson or is drifting toward Team Transitory 2.0. x.com 

The dollar's longer-term prospects are very negative: 2008 showed the dollar-based system was built on quicksand, and 2026 showed the US has lost its leadership of the Western-oriented world. Both are very positive for gold. First, though, the dollar might rise on a flight to liquidity. x.com  x.com  x.com