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Aaron Burnett

Founder & CEO of Mach33, SpaceX Research & Early-Stage Investing

1 Nov, 21:25Latest

SpaceX's newly specified GPU sites and schedules make the upper end of its year-end compute guidance more credible. Elon Musk says Gun Range is tracking for 220,000 GB300 GPUs for training by end-November and Spam for about 200,000 for inference in December, using less than half the fiber. He targets about 1.2 million Blackwell GPUs at Colossus II by year-end. His disclosures also point to 440,000 Vera Rubin GPUs coming online in another six months. The 2.5-3 GW guidance is unchanged. x.com x.com x.com x.com

SPCX

31 Oct, 17:22

Outside investment and early results make orbital compute increasingly credible, but launch cadence could delay scale. Google has tested TPUs in orbit and plans a linked pair; Blue Origin is hiring, and Nvidia is investing in StarMind. It looks likely within five years, more so within ten, though not necessarily Elon’s two-to-three. Deploying 1 GW may require 100-200 Starship launches, making reuse, manufacturing and pads chokepoints. x.com x.com x.com

SPCX

Marcos Milla

Former Analyst at the Federal Reserve, ETF/Stock Newsletter Author

21 Oct

NVDA

SpaceX's large Nvidia GPU deployments underpin a $400 Nvidia stock call. Elon Musk said SpaceX is deploying roughly 200,000-220,000 Nvidia GB300 GPUs per month, expects to transition primarily to Vera Rubin hardware in 2027 and discussed a planned training cluster of 440,000 Vera Rubin units. x.com

Tae Kim

AI/Semiconductor Journalist, Author of Key Context

20 Oct

NVDA

SpaceX's reported deployment pace adds concrete demand for Nvidia GPUs. Musk plans a 440,000-unit Vera Rubin training cluster online by Q2, apparently 2027; SpaceX says it is turning on 220,000 Nvidia GB300s a month, with Musk expecting that pace to accelerate next year. x.com x.com

Roger

Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor

27 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's GPU lease disclosures leave the productive capacity behind its $40 billion financing unclear. The company has disclosed Vera Rubin lease terms and dollar amounts, with first deliveries expected in the first half of 2027, but not the gigawatts or GPU count; successive lease and debt announcements do not resolve how much compute will actually be delivered. x.com x.com x.com

Crossroads

Retail Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

26 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's exclusive use of Nvidia GPUs and other supply constraints make Musk's 13-20 GW operational compute forecast for end-2027 too high. A substantial buildout is still incredibly enticing, but reaching that scale likely requires cheap capacity from struggling neoclouds, mostly through capacity deals and some acquisitions. Its attractive $40B off-balance-sheet GPU lease deal is only a drop in the bucket of the debt needed. Capacity can still grow quickly over time. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more

Space Investor

Space-Sector Investor

26 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's compute outlook improves as Anthropic commits more spending and institutions fund its GPU expansion. Anthropic's S-1 lists up to $120.5B in SpaceXAI compute purchases through 2029; Pimco bought $4B of the roughly $40B Apollo-led GPU debt package. The GPU lease is expected to close before year-end and entails about $40B in principal payments, not new shares. Elon Musk says Starlink Mobile will take 2-3 years to build out, versus the 4-6 years estimated by Verizon's CEO. x.com x.com x.com … Show more

Masa’s Son

Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor

1 Nov

SPCX

SpaceX's AI-compute returns look overstated because a one-year payback is unlikely to withstand competition and orbital capex may be missing. Shaun Maguire assumes $40bn/GW of revenue, triple Q3's ~$13bn/GW annualized; Meta has underused capacity, while algorithmic gains could cut compute per token if demand is finite. His falling capex/GW clashes with $35-40bn/GW of Nvidia Rubin content; 2.8 orbital GW by Q4 2028 and 135 Starship flights could leave ~$120bn out of FY28 capex. x.com x.com

Serenity

AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader

26 Oct

AXTI

NVDA

SpaceX's $40B financing for GPU procurement adds another large, funded source of AI-infrastructure demand, with spending flowing into GPUs, memory, networking and optics. At the same time, InP substrates are seriously short, and Morgan Stanley identifies InP, EML and CW lasers as primary bottlenecks; suppliers that secure raw materials should gain pricing power. Any slowdown looks unlikely. x.com

IvanaSPEAR

Founder & CIO of Spear Invest, Portfolio Manager of SPRX ETF

28 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's cheap capital and hardware execution give its compute buildout an edge over neoclouds and megacaps. It is quickly becoming the world's largest compute supplier: its 2033 bonds pay 5.65% versus 9.625% on CoreWeave's 2032 notes, and it deployed 110,000 GB300s at Colossus II in 64 days. It targets 10GW to "maybe" 20GW in 2027. One of Anthropic's biggest compute suppliers, SpaceX has up to $120.5B in estimated commitments through 2029, cancellable on 90 days' notice after early 2027. x.com

Late Stage Capitalism

Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience

21 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's 13-20GW 2027 plan would crash compute rates if achieved, and Nvidia cannot supply the chips. Even 10GW gross/8GW IT needs 350,000 GPUs and $30-32B monthly; 20GW costs $400-500B against $750B in global AI spend. A 28% share release tomorrow and Musk's cross-company overpayments keep SpaceX hands-off. Yet 400MW+ monthly deployment could yield $225B revenue and $100B profit in 2027, worth $2T at 20x; Elon firms rarely trade at only 20x. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Asymmetric Bets

Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals

27 Oct

AI agents' productivity over human labor should lift GPU demand and rates for neoclouds. The bottom looks in for CoreWeave, Nebius, Boost Run, Sharon AI and IREN. Gavin Baker says token prices can fall as revenue per GPU rises; paraphrasing Elon, even $38 per GPU-hour can pay off. CoreWeave's five-year fixed contracts may lag current rates; Boost Run has less capacity locked in. If SpaceX takes more growth, slower cash burn could rerate neoclouds, though smaller customers may pay less. x.com … Show more

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