Danny cheng
Technology Investor, Homily Charts & Technical Analysis
Tesla's 2x leveraged ETF TSLL is not advisable to hold for extended periods, unlike Tesla shares, because daily resets and volatility decay can make it underperform badly even if Tesla recovers. Its weekly chart keeps forming lower highs and lower lows, a clear downtrend, while whale accumulation has dropped sharply as large players cut exposure. If it fails to hold support near $7, the next meaningful support is $6.00-6.20. x.comÂ
Leveraged single-stock ETFs such as TSLL, CONL and MUU are built for short-term trading, not buy-and-hold. Daily rebalancing and volatility decay erode their value over time, especially in sideways or choppy markets, even when the underlying stock eventually moves the expected way. Their structure favors issuers and frequent traders over retail holders, so simpler, unleveraged strategies serve long-term investors better. x.comÂ
TSLL fails to deliver 2x Tesla's return in every positive-return scenario at Tesla's historical volatility. The fund's prospectus table, mapping stock return against volatility over one year, shows that at Tesla's 67% five-year volatility a 60% gain in Tesla yields just 45.9% from the fund, not the 120% investors expect. Across those combinations, holders should expect less than 2x roughly 58% of the time, getting the leverage when they least want it. x.comÂ
Tesla's seasonally strong fourth quarter makes shorting the stock here unattractive. A new bullish trend still needs a clear breakout above its 200-day moving average and price-channel resistance for confirmation. x.comÂ
Tesla's growth across multiple businesses makes the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF's decline this week another opportunity to buy the dip. Vehicle sales, energy demand, Supercharging, FSD, services, Robotaxi and Semi are gaining momentum; Tesla is growing, not declining. x.comÂ
Tesla's low forward growth and negative free cash flow weaken its long-term appeal. Next-twelve-month revenue growth is 8.9%, while increasing competition threatens its moat. Tesla is noise for now with Elon focused more on SpaceX; its ADR reading of 2.48 is below the 4-plus needed to turn a day trade into a swing, though earnings may change that. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's $1.5T Elon premium looks unjustified while Musk seems to favor SpaceX for the AI compute buildout. Tesla shareholders missed almost the entire AI boom; owning xAI and building that infrastructure might have doubled Tesla's stock. Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.48, down 4% year over year; if Tesla were a non-Musk company, four such quarters at 10x earnings would mean $19.20 a share versus $386. Long-term company prospects remain attractive, but the stock is still not worth buying back. x.com … Show more
Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.comÂ
Tesla's options flow points to a bullish or neutral outlook, with a $15M put seller positioned out to October. Selling puts signals an expectation that the stock stays bullish or neutral through expiration, while leaving lots of room for error and drawdown. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla is losing its dip buyers as major Elon Musk fans move to SpaceX instead, so the stock keeps dropping. It fell 14% to $320 even though earnings were decent, with GAAP EPS down 3% to $0.33. That still leaves Tesla at a 242 PE. x.comÂ
Tesla looks ready to break down after a long consolidation, with little reason left to hold. Earnings were poor, market conditions are bad, and Elon Musk is talking down the robots. x.comÂ
Tesla's valuation has never been reasonable since 2013, not even in the 2018 and 2022 selloffs, so it has no place in a valuation-driven investment approach today. x.comÂ
