Endless Capital
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Nvidia's stock is too cheap for Jensen Huang to ignore, which is why the company announced the largest stock buyback ever. x.comÂ
Nvidia's buyback increase to $235 billion, the largest in history, should help lift the share price and add significant downside protection. x.comÂ
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback is immaterial and cannot provide a floor under the stock. Against a $5 trillion market cap it is about 3% over roughly two years, under 2% a year, whereas Apple's $100 billion buyback came when its market cap was about $900 billion. Stock-based compensation and the size of insider sales over the last year offset it further. Nvidia remains a remarkable company. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's next move is being underestimated while attention is on Meta as the Magnificent Seven all-time-high candidate. Nvidia has increased its record buyback authorization to $235 billion into fiscal 2028, just as the stock breaks out from a year-long range. x.comÂ
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.comÂ
Falling AI token and compute prices are a perfect storm for Nvidia. Token costs are down about 30% since the start of June, falling on 15 of the past 18 days, while compute rental prices are 16% off their recent highs. The bull argument that this doesn't matter for Nvidia because the Silicon Token LLM index only tracks spot prices does not hold. x.comÂ
Nvidia is becoming a share cannibal at a $5T market cap as it accelerates buybacks and dividends. Its new $150B buyback brings its total authorization to $235B, the largest ever. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's record buyback shows a company confident in its future cash flows. Per a quoted post, Nvidia authorized a $150 billion buyback, the largest single increase in US corporate history, while Jensen Huang called the current cycle the largest infrastructure buildout in human history. x.comÂ
Nvidia's equity-investment book makes earnings vulnerable to an AI valuation downturn even if GPU sales hold up. Private and public stakes totaled about $99bn, or 31% of assets, in July; gains were $15.9bn in April and $7.8bn in July. Private holdings are marked on observable transactions or impairments, so losses could arrive in lumps. Nvidia generated about $127bn of free cash flow over four quarters, and the filing does not split private stakes by sector. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia looks very attractive against its own sales valuation history while growth is expected to remain strong. It trades at 16.9x trailing sales versus a five-year median of 25.0x, unlike most chip stocks near the top of their ranges. Forward earnings are 17.7x, with consensus forecasting 78% revenue growth over the next year. x.comÂ