Brett Krieger
Retail Investor, Space, AI & Emerging Technology
Palantir's fast-growing commercial business undercuts the claim that large companies could easily replicate its offering. Commercial accounts for about half of total revenue and is doubling year over year; Paul Walsh contends that its technology can be rebuilt and that political access is its biggest competitive advantage. x.comÂ
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.comÂ
Palantir's reliance on pay-as-you-go service with refunds makes customer cancellations and sudden earnings declines or write-downs a serious risk as AI and high SaaS prices pressure the business. Its 10-Q warns of these risks. Anthropic can and will easily replace Palantir with an all-in-one platform under Democratic control of the legislative branches. x.com x.comÂ
Enterprise demand for sovereign AI favors Palantir's transformation model. In a two-pronged AI economy, businesses can retain their IP and use low-cost open models while frontier labs compete for the last increment of intelligence. x.comÂ
Palantir makes an amazing product no one else can match, and once customers are in the system it becomes incredibly difficult to leave. That has driven immense growth in customers, earnings and backlog, making it one of five growth stocks set to dominate over the next decade. x.comÂ
Palantir's high-margin consulting layer is being commoditized as frontier models make complex data orchestration cheap and fast. Enterprises need not spend $10 million and 18 months on a rigid Foundry ontology when frontier models can parse messy data and build workflows in hours; Alex Karp's token-fee complaints reflect that. Its national-security moat is cracking as military operators use tools like Claude Code directly, and talent is fleeing to frontier labs. Palantir is a short. x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ
Palantir's expanding customer base and large deals suggest its run is not over. Q2 2026 net dollar retention reached 157%, it closed 220 deals of at least $1 million, and customers rose 24% year over year to 1,049. x.comÂ
Palantir's share price demands unusually fast cash and profit growth despite its strong business. At roughly $210, it implies 48.5% annual growth for five years; at 32% annual growth, the shares would be worth $96.64. It is a Watch, not a Buy at today's prices. Q2 sales rose 93% and cash flow after employee stock pay was $2.52 billion over 12 months, but government concentration, cancellable contracts and rising stock pay remain risks. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir could become harder to replace if its account-opening software helps banks bring in deposits faster and becomes part of their daily workflow. Its latest banking deal targets that process, adding a potential retention mechanism to its AI-revenue case. x.comÂ
