CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
Boost Run's lock-up expires within days, letting insiders and the CEO sell their shares, which could cause massive selling pressure. That is a big deal and a huge risk against the earlier bull case for the newly listed AI infrastructure provider, built on Nvidia Preferred Cloud Service Provider status, a $1.44B Dell purchase agreement and about $471.7M of take-or-pay contracts for 5,000 Nvidia B300 GPUs. x.com x.com
Nvidia's cash could have more value invested in AI companies with strong demand but too little capital to scale, especially neoclouds that can execute. Their valuations look very attractive now, making equity stakes preferable to more buybacks or dividends despite criticism of circular deals. SpaceX may need the money less because it is already very big. x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.com … Show more
Boost Run's delivery ahead of schedule and ability to capture higher current compute pricing strengthen its upside case. A release this week shows faster delivery, while management says it will not dilute with equity; guidance could imply $2B ARR exiting 2027. Unlike CoreWeave, it is not locked into stale contract terms. Short interest is 26%, even as the shares are down 75% from their highs and fundamentals improve. x.com
Nvidia's shares remain pressured because neoclouds have yet to show demand revenue can cover debt service even at higher rates. CoreWeave and Nebius are dragging the shares, though that concern is being priced in and digested. Reuters reports ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordered $35B in Nvidia chips; Elon Musk says SpaceX is on track to bring roughly 200,000 GB300 GPUs online per month through end-2026. Nvidia made a higher low, and the next higher-high target is $256. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Demand for Nvidia chips remains robust, and the stock could rally to a $273 technical target, where this rally would match the last one in size. SpaceX reportedly raising $40 billion through loans and bonds to buy Nvidia chips has helped bring it close to a first-ever $6 trillion value. The multi-model signal is a mixed long. The risk is that customers are taking on heavy debt to pay, feeding Michael Burry's demand-whip theory and raising credit risk if end demand falls short. x.com
Boost Run gains fresh validation from Nebius, the premier neocloud, now listed as a customer in its latest deck on top of its exemplar status with Nvidia. It is free-cash-flow positive and guiding for 1,233% ARR expansion to over $400M in FY26. The thesis is unchanged, but early lock-up expiry is a serious near-term risk: if the stock stays above $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, about 24M shares, roughly 3.3x the current float, become eligible to sell. x.com x.com x.com
Boost Run faces a near-term lock-up overhang. If the stock holds above $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, an early-release trigger around June 5-9 lets about 24M shares, roughly 3.3x the float, become eligible to sell. A similar post-SPAC release hit CoreWeave 15-22% over 30 days, and typical recent de-SPACs fell 25-40% over 60 days. This is a mechanical event, not a thesis change: Boost Run guides ARR up 1,233% to $400M+ by FY26 year-end and is FCF positive. Remaining shares unlock November 8. … Show more
Boost Run looks like a leasing company rather than a neocloud, left to compete on price forever. It owns little: GPUs are leased, data centers are rented colocation, and its 125 MW is mostly others' capacity. It sells undifferentiated bare metal, the layer even CoreWeave is leaving, and about 21% of FY25 revenue came from pointing idle GPUs at crypto networks amid a GPU shortage. Its customers are leftovers, and a $1.44B Dell commitment dwarfs about $90M raised, after a bridge loan default. … Show more
Boost Run's contracted utilization answers the depreciation bear case for neoclouds. GPUs are depreciated over 4-6 years, so GAAP margins can look thin while free cash flow is positive; the real risk is chips going obsolete faster than assumed. Thinking Machines' take-or-pay deal is non-cancelable and pays for the full term, locking utilization through the depreciation window. The de-SPAC lockup is an overhang, but insiders with control and earnouts rarely dump, so dips are a chance to add. … Show more
Nvidia and the memory makers are where real AI demand sits, while neoclouds should be avoided until renewal risk is fully priced. Nvidia's push to mobilize $500B for AI infrastructure includes residual-value support of up to 25% per deal, a $125B ceiling of contingent exposure rather than a committed liability. Credit is already repricing: CoreWeave's August 10 GPU-backed loan priced at SOFR+5.50, a point wider than in May, as lenders weigh five-year loans against roughly three-year contracts. … Show more
