Michael Sikand
Investor, Autopilot Portfolio, Founder of Sikand Media
Boost Run gains fresh validation from Nebius, the premier neocloud, now listed as a customer in its latest deck on top of its exemplar status with Nvidia. It is free-cash-flow positive and guiding for 1,233% ARR expansion to over $400M in FY26. The thesis is unchanged, but early lock-up expiry is a serious near-term risk: if the stock stays above $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, about 24M shares, roughly 3.3x the current float, become eligible to sell. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Boost Run looks attractive as a roughly $2 billion neocloud trading at only about 4x a non-cancelable deal with one of the top private AI labs. On May 21 it signed a $471.7 million, 36-month contract with Mira Murati's Thinking Machines Lab for 5,000 NVIDIA B300 GPUs, payable in full regardless of usage. The deal lifts backlog about 50% to roughly $1.41 billion, and signed contracts now annualize to about $470 million at full deployment, above its entire $375 million fiscal 2026 exit ARR target. x.comÂ
Boost Run's delivery ahead of schedule and ability to capture higher current compute pricing strengthen its upside case. A release this week shows faster delivery, while management says it will not dilute with equity; guidance could imply $2B ARR exiting 2027. Unlike CoreWeave, it is not locked into stale contract terms. Short interest is 26%, even as the shares are down 75% from their highs and fundamentals improve. x.comÂ
Long-dated call buying and $150 put selling suggest institutions are positioned for upside in Nebius into 2027, a stronger bullish read than Marvell. Unusual Whales data show over $25 million in two call blocks, though one may be a roll, and over $12 million in $150 puts sold. The 19% two-day bounce lacked confirming options inflows, so Nebius could retest $170 before Nov. 10 earnings, with a roughly 18% implied move. x.comÂ
Boost Run faces a near-term lock-up overhang. If the stock holds above $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, an early-release trigger around June 5-9 lets about 24M shares, roughly 3.3x the float, become eligible to sell. A similar post-SPAC release hit CoreWeave 15-22% over 30 days, and typical recent de-SPACs fell 25-40% over 60 days. This is a mechanical event, not a thesis change: Boost Run guides ARR up 1,233% to $400M+ by FY26 year-end and is FCF positive. Remaining shares unlock November 8. … Show more
Customer prepayments and delayed-draw debt could finance Boost Run's prospective $4-5B hardware procurement and change its TCV and ARR outlook. Management mentioned the procurement, and an analyst spoken to confirmed the delayed-draw term loan. Customers pay 22% upfront on 3-5 year deals, while 40-45% of hardware cost converts into ARR; on that basis, TCV and ARR could look very different soon. x.comÂ
Boost Run is a high-risk, asymmetric AI-infrastructure bet with real contracts and Nvidia tailwinds, worth a small position if it hits $375 million-plus ARR and proves its platform scales. It has a $940 million contracted backlog, just won a $472 million deal for 5,000 B300 GPUs for Thinking Machines Lab, and deploys GPUs faster than hyperscalers. But at 60-80x sales on $27 million of revenue, loss-making, with high debt and a delayed 10-Q, it can easily drop 50% on a miss or AI cooldown. x.comÂ
Boost Run's lock-up expires within days, letting insiders and the CEO sell their shares, which could cause massive selling pressure. That is a big deal and a huge risk against the earlier bull case for the newly listed AI infrastructure provider, built on Nvidia Preferred Cloud Service Provider status, a $1.44B Dell purchase agreement and about $471.7M of take-or-pay contracts for 5,000 Nvidia B300 GPUs. x.com x.comÂ
Nebius's new financing addresses funding fears around its compute buildout. Its $3.5B Citi facility funds data centers and GPUs, and over $40B of long-term contracts with investment-grade customers offers more borrowing capacity. Bank of America says funding is covered through 2026 and reiterates Buy and a $310 target, expecting the shares to double; it estimates about $18B of new capital for 1 GW in 2027, potentially less with customer prepayments. x.comÂ
Nebius looks cheaper against a year of stronger execution, leaving room for its shares to rise. EV/current ARR fell from 57x to 14x as quarterly revenue rose from $105M to $582M and adjusted EBITDA moved from -$21M to +$236M. The 5GW figure is a year-end contracted-power target, not live capacity. Per Polymarket, Dutch government AI plans could favor Amsterdam-based Nebius. Delivery still needs capital and power; Nebius borrows at about half CoreWeave's cost and gets customer prepayments. x.com … Show more
Boost Run looks like a leasing company rather than a neocloud, left to compete on price forever. It owns little: GPUs are leased, data centers are rented colocation, and its 125 MW is mostly others' capacity. It sells undifferentiated bare metal, the layer even CoreWeave is leaving, and about 21% of FY25 revenue came from pointing idle GPUs at crypto networks amid a GPU shortage. Its customers are leftovers, and a $1.44B Dell commitment dwarfs about $90M raised, after a bridge loan default. … Show more
Nebius could be one of the few neoclouds to survive and thrive in a shakeout because it can finance expansion while weaker rivals struggle. Its new $3.5B Citi facility bolsters capital access; Nebius says prepayments on roughly 70% of Q2 deals covered 50-60% of related capex. Its integrated cloud and NVIDIA collaboration strengthen its platform; Palantir may bring enterprise demand but has yet to yield revenue. The Citi facility matures in 364 days; delivery and returns remain risks. x.comÂ
