Asymmetric Bets
Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals
Boost Run's delivery ahead of schedule and ability to capture higher current compute pricing strengthen its upside case. A release this week shows faster delivery, while management says it will not dilute with equity; guidance could imply $2B ARR exiting 2027. Unlike CoreWeave, it is not locked into stale contract terms. Short interest is 26%, even as the shares are down 75% from their highs and fundamentals improve. x.com
Boost Run's suggested $4B of compute demand makes a 2026-only bear valuation misleading on a 2027 horizon. A model showing roughly 40% downside from current levels turns to upside even if it captures only half that demand. If it executes as management has said by end-2027, ARR could approach $2B and imply a share price around $80 net of debt and leases. Boost Run looks cheaper on 2027 figures and is growing much faster than Nebius, though it need not match Nebius's scale. x.com x.com
Customer prepayments and delayed-draw debt could finance Boost Run's prospective $4-5B hardware procurement and change its TCV and ARR outlook. Management mentioned the procurement, and an analyst spoken to confirmed the delayed-draw term loan. Customers pay 22% upfront on 3-5 year deals, while 40-45% of hardware cost converts into ARR; on that basis, TCV and ARR could look very different soon. x.com
CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.com
Boost Run faces a near-term lock-up overhang. If the stock holds above $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, an early-release trigger around June 5-9 lets about 24M shares, roughly 3.3x the float, become eligible to sell. A similar post-SPAC release hit CoreWeave 15-22% over 30 days, and typical recent de-SPACs fell 25-40% over 60 days. This is a mechanical event, not a thesis change: Boost Run guides ARR up 1,233% to $400M+ by FY26 year-end and is FCF positive. Remaining shares unlock November 8. … Show more
CoreWeave's risk is buildout speed: each new build needs capital before the last pays for itself. Its analysis shows $35.6B of loans lasting about nine months beyond customer contracts; $14.6B is due in 2031-32 as final contract cash arrives. IREN's Microsoft project loan matches its contract, but $6.3B of convertible bonds mature in 2031-33, mostly after contracted cash ends; low shares mean cash repayment. Slower AI demand growth could let both earn back projects before funding more. x.com
Boost Run gains fresh validation from Nebius, the premier neocloud, now listed as a customer in its latest deck on top of its exemplar status with Nvidia. It is free-cash-flow positive and guiding for 1,233% ARR expansion to over $400M in FY26. The thesis is unchanged, but early lock-up expiry is a serious near-term risk: if the stock stays above $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, about 24M shares, roughly 3.3x the current float, become eligible to sell. x.com x.com x.com
Boost Run's lock-up expires within days, letting insiders and the CEO sell their shares, which could cause massive selling pressure. That is a big deal and a huge risk against the earlier bull case for the newly listed AI infrastructure provider, built on Nvidia Preferred Cloud Service Provider status, a $1.44B Dell purchase agreement and about $471.7M of take-or-pay contracts for 5,000 Nvidia B300 GPUs. x.com x.com
CoreWeave's pricing power is overlooked amid financing fears, making it potentially the most misunderstood AI stock right now. It had over $104B in Q2 backlog and signed $25B in net new commitments over six weeks. Short-term contracts approach $40M per MW annually versus about $7M on active capacity, but that rate cannot be applied fleetwide. A $4.2B convertible carried a 2.875% coupon despite near-15% unsecured bond yields; $35B debt, dilution and capacity-conversion risks remain. x.com
AI funding is easing as lower credit-insurance costs could reopen funding. CoreWeave CDS fell to ~1,040bp from above 1,100bp; Oracle says growth should fund itself from FY29. Google kept its $195–205B 2026 capex guide, expects more in 2027 and is renting third-party compute despite margin headwinds, supporting Nebius and CoreWeave pricing power. Microsoft’s Azure growth accelerated to 48%, while Meta and Microsoft credit spreads eased. A bigger rally needs further credit easing. x.com x.com … Show more
Boost Run looks like a leasing company rather than a neocloud, left to compete on price forever. It owns little: GPUs are leased, data centers are rented colocation, and its 125 MW is mostly others' capacity. It sells undifferentiated bare metal, the layer even CoreWeave is leaving, and about 21% of FY25 revenue came from pointing idle GPUs at crypto networks amid a GPU shortage. Its customers are leftovers, and a $1.44B Dell commitment dwarfs about $90M raised, after a bridge loan default. … Show more
Rising GPU rental rates and Anthropic's compute margins challenge claims of collapsing demand for CoreWeave's capacity. The WSJ reported Anthropic's first-half revenue of $16.3B against $9B in compute and infrastructure spending; Bloomberg reported its Q3 compute margin above 40%. Long contracts and fully amortizing loans cushion demand declines but cap upside. Despite the challenging neocloud model, CoreWeave's risk/reward is by far the best and its quality well ahead of peers. x.com x.com … Show more
