Christian Fromhertz
CEO of Tribeca Trade Group, Momentum Trader, Ex-BAML ETF Director
AXT is one of the charts highlighted as a long in the weekend newsletter, alongside Applied Optoelectronics. x.comÂ
AXT could double if its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern completes. It sits in the semicap space that benefits from hyperscalers' new capex, and strong call flow today adds support. x.comÂ
AXT's new public offering should push the stock down. x.comÂ
Options flow in AXT points bullish, with $1.4M going into calls and a $1.4M put seller. x.com x.comÂ
AXT is among the high-growth companies likely to beat 5.2% bond yields: revenue rose 164% year on year and 77% sequentially, and it swung to a profit. As @BULLOFBRITAIN notes, the market is offering 100% growers at a 40% discount because investors want to lock in bond yields. x.comÂ
AXT is a good company, but its valuation is currently somewhat high. x.comÂ
AXT looks good on the dip because its blowout quarter has de-risked the stock. x.comÂ
AXT is a speculative add on the market's sharp drop, because indium phosphide wafer prices have reportedly risen a lot lately. x.comÂ
Small caps such as AXT that have risen 8,800% in a year at forward P/Es in the hundreds look held by buyers hoping to dump on the next person. Investors should ask who runs them, what the moats are and whether competitors can replicate them; Nvidia's Jensen Huang says most bottlenecks can be solved within a few years, so what happens in 5-10? This pushes back on @aleabitoreddit's claim that AXT controls the materials buildout for photonics. x.comÂ
AXT holds a critical-materials monopoly hiding in plain sight, because AI needs fiber, fiber needs lasers and lasers need indium phosphide. The stock is volatile. x.comÂ