Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
FOCI is positioned for a coming fiber-array-unit bottleneck in co-packaged optics, where supply cannot meet demand. Per UDN, Largan Precision, FOCI and China's TFC have entered Nvidia's FAU supply chain; about 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year would need roughly 600k-700k FAUs, demand should reach several million units in 2027, and existing capacity cannot meet it. It is a tad early, with mass production expected in H2 2027. x.com
FOCI looks set to attract mainstream institutions now that media coverage confirms the TSMC optical link that X spotted early. A new UDN article on TSMC's COUPE says institutions expect FOCI and MSScorps to benefit, noting FOCI's FAU products have been co-developed with TSMC for at least three years, with specs raised to 1.6T and 3.2T and mass production timing now the focus. Both remain extremely small companies. x.com
FOCI's CPO coupling opportunity faces a future share test because Largan plans to ship qualified fiber arrays during FOCI's 2027-28 ramp. For now, both call arrays and FAUs short, so this reads as added capacity, not lost share. FOCI began booking small FAU revenue at 3.2T and above in Q3; most of its growth is still older business. Largan's line is due by end-Q2 2027. If CPO switches ship in volume and FOCI's monthly revenue stays flat into 1H27, share becomes the question. x.com x.com
FOCI Fiber Optic Communications could sit at the center of Nvidia's co-packaged optics supply chain as AI data centers move from pluggable fiber to CPO in 2026. It has built fiber array units with TSMC for over three years, has 1.6T and 3.2T specs in the pipeline, and its proprietary ReLFACon technology removes the need for separate transceivers. A patent trail linking FOCI, Himax and TSMC suggests it is Nvidia's exclusive CPO fiber array supplier. A daily SuperTrend buy signal just confirmed. … Show more
Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com … Show more
Pluggable optics have a new scaling path alongside CPO and NPO, supporting demand for light from Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics. Nvidia and Cisco's planned USFP packs 16 full-duplex 400G/lane connections into an OSFP-sized footprint, targeting four times the bandwidth density of 200G/lane modules while retaining replaceability. Volume-production timing and adoption remain unknown. x.com x.com
FOCI's ReLFACon reflowable lensed fiber array connector is its moat in CPO: it links fiber arrays directly into silicon-photonics CPO modules with heat-tolerant materials matching the chip's thermal expansion, holding alignment through hot packaging. Its fiber array units, about 40% of CPO module cost, partly decide whether CPO can be mass-produced. Himax and TSMC ties make it Taiwan's core FAU player. @aleabitoreddit expects Nvidia's Computex keynote to lift Taiwan optics including FOCI. x.com
Bizlink is a beneficiary of Nvidia's faster-than-expected co-packaged optics ramp, because CPO carries higher content for it than near-packaged optics. Spectrum-X CPO switches are in mass production as key component yields improve, with scale-out switch shipments forecast at 15k in 4Q26 and 100k in 2027. Scale-up optical engine estimates were revised to 6.5m in 2027 and 42m in 2028, as NVL576 is intact but Trainium 4 is slower. Full NPO adoption is retained for the cycle. x.com x.com
Coherent's booked InP laser capacity gives it a potential path into Nvidia's CPO expansion. Nvidia wants optical-engine capacity up 15x by mid-2027 and holds laser purchase commitments and capacity rights from its $2B Coherent investment. Coherent says fiscal 2027 is essentially booked and customers are reserving into 2028, but most near-term orders are for pluggables and other products; scale-up CPO revenue starts only in H2 2027. Neither company has sized Nvidia's rights. x.com
Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.com
Lumentum's valuation is supported by Nvidia's co-packaged optics scale-out progressing faster than expected. Spectrum-X CPO switches are in mass production on better component yields, with shipments forecast at 15k in 4Q26 rising to 100k in 2027. CPO and NPO are seen contributing 12% and 26% of Lumentum's revenue in 2027 and 2028. Scale-up optical engine estimates were revised to 6.5m and 42m for 2027 and 2028, with full NPO adoption for the cycle retained. x.com
POET Technologies and Sivers, as co-packaged optics pure plays, lose because CPO adoption has moved right by a full generation. SemiAnalysis reports Nvidia's flagship Kyber NVL144 rack is delayed over 12 months to 2028 and its NVL72x2 backup was cancelled, while optical scale-up won't arrive until Feynman. Packaging and interconnect hit physical walls in the same cycle, and the entire thesis for these names rests on CPO timing. x.com
