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Paradis

AI & Technology Investment Research

20 Oct, 23:40Latest

Scarce compute prices Nebius's and CoreWeave's GPU rentals by marginal-token value, not chip cost. Better models lift installed watts' value faster than new GPUs devalue old ones. SpaceX says contracts renew at higher dollars per watt; CoreWeave's A100 deal runs to 2029, and Nebius's Blackwell auction cleared 15% above its prior high. The 2-3 year GPU-life bear case keeps getting set back. If supply catches demand, older GPUs would be repriced by performance per watt, but that looks far off. x.com

NBIS

CRWV

16 Sep, 22:39

Nebius raising on-demand rates for four-year-old H100s shows older GPUs live longer than expected, which kills the GPU depreciation bear thesis for Nebius and CoreWeave. From October 1, H100 rises to $4.50 per GPU-hour from $3.85 and B300 to $9.50 from $7.85; the revenue gain itself is small. CoreWeave signed an A100 contract running to 2029, so newer GPUs may last over a decade. Supply-demand equilibrium is a long way off, as AI labs' compute needs keep accelerating. x.com x.com x.com x.com

NBIS

CRWV

Asymmetric Bets

Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals

27 Oct

AI agents' productivity over human labor should lift GPU demand and rates for neoclouds. The bottom looks in for CoreWeave, Nebius, Boost Run, Sharon AI and IREN. Gavin Baker says token prices can fall as revenue per GPU rises; paraphrasing Elon, even $38 per GPU-hour can pay off. CoreWeave's five-year fixed contracts may lag current rates; Boost Run has less capacity locked in. If SpaceX takes more growth, slower cash burn could rerate neoclouds, though smaller customers may pay less. x.com … Show more

Jonah Lupton

CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth

20 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

Scarce compute could ease financing for neoclouds such as Nebius and CoreWeave by shortening capex payback. Elon Musk says SpaceX's new deployments pay back in less than a year at current pricing; that bodes well for other neoclouds facing financing concerns if they achieve similar economics. GPU rental rates keep hitting highs, contrary to Gartner's claim of oversupply. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Pegasus

Long/Short Equity Investor

25 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

IREN

Hardware suppliers and VC keep financing cash-hungry labs and neoclouds, making compute rental prices at CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN look artificially supported. Lab revenue growth is finally plateauing at 800% year over year after roughly tenfold equity gains across the stack over the last decade. The buildout is also crowding out the economy's appetite for debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Alexander Bittan

Long-Term Frontier-Technology Investor, Neuralink/Anduril/Perplexity

25 Oct

CRWV

IREN

Rising rental rates even for older GPUs strengthen the case that IREN and CoreWeave's compute assets retain value. The quoted a16z data puts year-to-date rental gains at 160% for H200s, 120% for B200s and 35% for H100s; even six-year-old A100s rent for more than at the start of the year. x.com

Noah

Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities

20 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

IREN

Accelerating compute demand could drive a V-shaped recovery in beaten-down neocloud stocks if SpaceX earnings confirm it. Nebius, CoreWeave and IREN are on watch. GPU spot rates rose rapidly: H100s $3.34/hour, H200s $4.93, B200s $8.13. Nebius had $582M Q2 revenue, nearly 6x YoY; CoreWeave a $129B backlog early in Q3; SpaceX 1.4 GW compute capacity last quarter, up from 400 MW a year ago. Whether SpaceX converts demand into meaningful revenue and EPS beats remains the key question. x.com

Roger

Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor

25 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave may run out of financing before it can access GPUs under contract in about four years. If it cannot pay Nvidia, share sales are its remaining option until investors see no path to payment and the stock collapses. GPU-backed loans are no longer available even with customer backing; bankruptcy is forecast for Q3 2027 based on its books. x.com x.com x.com

IvanaSPEAR

Founder & CIO of Spear Invest, Portfolio Manager of SPRX ETF

28 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's cheap capital and hardware execution give its compute buildout an edge over neoclouds and megacaps. It is quickly becoming the world's largest compute supplier: its 2033 bonds pay 5.65% versus 9.625% on CoreWeave's 2032 notes, and it deployed 110,000 GB300s at Colossus II in 64 days. It targets 10GW to "maybe" 20GW in 2027. One of Anthropic's biggest compute suppliers, SpaceX has up to $120.5B in estimated commitments through 2029, cancellable on 90 days' notice after early 2027. x.com

Small Cap Snipa

AI & Data-Center Equity Research, Power Infrastructure & Cloud Compute

20h ago

Premium-model inference revenue could support much higher compute pricing for AI infrastructure providers. Evercore models over $120M/MW in potential lab revenue while labs pay roughly $30-50M/MW for compute. With power and GPUs scarce, SpaceX AI, Nebius, IREN and CoreWeave can capture the biggest uplift over historical pricing if they deliver contracted high-density capacity. x.com x.com

Sergey

Growth Investor, Author of Compounding Your Wealth

26 Oct

HUT

CoreWeave's heavy debt and negative free cash flow heighten the risk that neocloud contract growth will not fund expansion. It has $104.2B in backlog against $35.6B in debt and negative $5.74B quarterly free cash flow; Nebius has over $40B in contracts but $5.7B quarterly capex and customer-concentration risk. DigitalOcean's diversified cloud model reduces reliance on debt-funded GPU expansion, while TeraWulf avoids direct GPU depreciation but faces capital-intensive construction. x.com

Jay Yoon

Founder & Portfolio Manager of Summit Ridge Capital Management

27 Oct

NBIS

Nebius's already-raised cash and expected customer prepayments should buffer its 2027 plans against a short-term debt-market freeze. Rising GPU rental prices could put new deals at $35m+/MW annually, up from last quarter's $20m-$25m, reducing estimated payback from 22 months to around a year. If Nebius deploys 1 GW next year at a one-year payback, equity value creation could be tremendous. x.com

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