Upstart should make a big comeback once interest rates come down, since high rates are what really hurt the stock. x.com 

Upstart offers a second chance to follow insider buying. In May the director and CEO bought $6.5M of stock combined at around $25-27; shares rebounded as high as $37 and have since round-tripped back to about $27. x.com 

Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more

Upstart's earnings look very strong, so a continued selloff looks like a buying opportunity unless something serious was missed. Nearly all of the bottom-line miss came from heavy sales and marketing spending to drive adoption of its new home loans business, spending that serves long-term investors rather than impressing day traders. x.com  x.com 

Better Home & Finance is now the favorite lending tech company, even over Upstart, though riskier because it is still very early. Its HELOC with a credit card turns home equity into a revolving credit line, making borrowers long-term customers and generating fees, and a Coinbase partnership lets borrowers use bitcoin or USDC as loan collateral. It grows at 40% yet trades at half Upstart's valuation, with fair value estimated at $40-50. x.com 

Upstart has zero moat, and a lending platform supposedly so much more efficient than traditional methods should not be losing money. @mukund notes it is intentionally burning capital to blitz-scale into home and auto lending, and that at a 55x P/E, a 10-year yield above 4.4% is a brutal headwind. x.com 

This ten-stock portfolio trades at just 3.7x cash flow, so multiple expansion is a major opportunity rather than a risk. Portfolios at 37x cash flow face multiple compression, as Akre Capital's Q1 2026 letter shows: its price to next-twelve-month free cash flow fell from 37x to 19x without any deterioration in operating fundamentals. x.com 

Upstart remains weighed down by worries over delinquency rates despite growing numbers, because it relies solely on lending. A safer route is fintech companies that don't depend only on lending, where investors feel more confident. x.com