SV_Techie
Entrepreneur & Startup Mentor, Technology Investor
Upstart has zero moat, and a lending platform supposedly so much more efficient than traditional methods should not be losing money. @mukund notes it is intentionally burning capital to blitz-scale into home and auto lending, and that at a 55x P/E, a 10-year yield above 4.4% is a brutal headwind. x.comÂ
Upstart remains weighed down by worries over delinquency rates despite growing numbers, because it relies solely on lending. A safer route is fintech companies that don't depend only on lending, where investors feel more confident. x.comÂ
Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more
Upstart should make a big comeback once interest rates come down, since high rates are what really hurt the stock. x.comÂ
Upstart is stuck near its 52-week low, and nothing will help it without rate cuts, which look unlikely anytime soon. x.comÂ
Pagaya, Upstart and Root are money-losing companies, not a rebound story. They pay no dividends, so their yield is zero, and any comparison with the 2021 SPAC-peak mania is not a long-term trend. This rebuts a post the author replies to, which argued these fintechs show steady quarter-over-quarter EPS growth on sustainable revenue, trade at 10-year lows with rising dividend yields, and could 2x or 3x. x.comÂ
Upstart's earnings look very strong, so a continued selloff looks like a buying opportunity unless something serious was missed. Nearly all of the bottom-line miss came from heavy sales and marketing spending to drive adoption of its new home loans business, spending that serves long-term investors rather than impressing day traders. x.com x.comÂ
Better Home & Finance is now the favorite lending tech company, even over Upstart, though riskier because it is still very early. Its HELOC with a credit card turns home equity into a revolving credit line, making borrowers long-term customers and generating fees, and a Coinbase partnership lets borrowers use bitcoin or USDC as loan collateral. It grows at 40% yet trades at half Upstart's valuation, with fair value estimated at $40-50. x.comÂ
Upstart offers a second chance to follow insider buying. In May the director and CEO bought $6.5M of stock combined at around $25-27; shares rebounded as high as $37 and have since round-tripped back to about $27. x.comÂ
Upstart still looks worth holding at 13x next-twelve-month EBITDA, given expected growth of about 44% a year for the next four years. x.comÂ
