Gublo
Small/Mid-Cap Trader, Multibagger/Penny Stocks, Earnings Analysis & Signals
Upstart has zero moat, and a lending platform supposedly so much more efficient than traditional methods should not be losing money. @mukund notes it is intentionally burning capital to blitz-scale into home and auto lending, and that at a 55x P/E, a 10-year yield above 4.4% is a brutal headwind. x.comÂ
Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more
Upstart should make a big comeback once interest rates come down, since high rates are what really hurt the stock. x.comÂ
Upstart remains weighed down by worries over delinquency rates despite growing numbers, because it relies solely on lending. A safer route is fintech companies that don't depend only on lending, where investors feel more confident. x.comÂ
Pagaya, Upstart and Root are money-losing companies, not a rebound story. They pay no dividends, so their yield is zero, and any comparison with the 2021 SPAC-peak mania is not a long-term trend. This rebuts a post the author replies to, which argued these fintechs show steady quarter-over-quarter EPS growth on sustainable revenue, trade at 10-year lows with rising dividend yields, and could 2x or 3x. x.comÂ
Upstart's earnings look very strong, so a continued selloff looks like a buying opportunity unless something serious was missed. Nearly all of the bottom-line miss came from heavy sales and marketing spending to drive adoption of its new home loans business, spending that serves long-term investors rather than impressing day traders. x.com x.comÂ
High debt and rate hikes make a big US equity correction likely. Warsh said nothing useful despite hot CPI and PPI after two weeks of hawkish rhetoric, while the rest of the Fed fence-sits. A debt crisis is incoming, and some funds will blow up soon. Big caps are the last leg; the bigger correction could be something like 20%. It is not a good time to buy dips. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Hallador Energy faces a near-term sentiment headwind because hot CPI raises the odds of rate hikes for rate-sensitive plays. The morning's move looks overdone, but the pressure on sentiment could persist for a while. x.comÂ
Upstart offers a second chance to follow insider buying. In May the director and CEO bought $6.5M of stock combined at around $25-27; shares rebounded as high as $37 and have since round-tripped back to about $27. x.comÂ
Small caps, housing stocks and unprofitable tech that ran on rate-cut hopes face a sharp repricing, as odds of a rate hike at the Fed's July 29 meeting tripled in a week. Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, new global tariffs lifted inflation expectations and the 10-year yield hit 4.71%. A Wells Fargo strategist said the Fed may need to hike more and faster than expected. With consumers already fragile, a hike would reprice small caps overnight. x.comÂ