Upstart should make a big comeback once interest rates come down, since high rates are what really hurt the stock. x.com 

Upstart's earnings look very strong, so a continued selloff looks like a buying opportunity unless something serious was missed. Nearly all of the bottom-line miss came from heavy sales and marketing spending to drive adoption of its new home loans business, spending that serves long-term investors rather than impressing day traders. x.com  x.com 

Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more

Upstart still looks worth holding at 13x next-twelve-month EBITDA, given expected growth of about 44% a year for the next four years. x.com 

Better Home & Finance is now the favorite lending tech company, even over Upstart, though riskier because it is still very early. Its HELOC with a credit card turns home equity into a revolving credit line, making borrowers long-term customers and generating fees, and a Coinbase partnership lets borrowers use bitcoin or USDC as loan collateral. It grows at 40% yet trades at half Upstart's valuation, with fair value estimated at $40-50. x.com 

Upstart remains weighed down by worries over delinquency rates despite growing numbers, because it relies solely on lending. A safer route is fintech companies that don't depend only on lending, where investors feel more confident. x.com 

Hard-hit small caps such as Upstart, Robinhood, IonQ, IREN, AST SpaceMobile, Coinbase and QuantumScape are worth adding in March-April 2026 as the Iran war nears its end. Upstart is down 93% in capitulation, Robinhood sits near IPO base support, IonQ at early-cycle support, IREN at Bitcoin-cycle support, AST in a pre-rally accumulation zone, Coinbase on the crypto cycle and QuantumScape near a SPAC bottom. How the war ends matters more than when. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alibaba's CEO just put $5 million of his own money into the stock, and CEO buying is always a catalyst worth watching. x.com 

Upstart has zero moat, and a lending platform supposedly so much more efficient than traditional methods should not be losing money. @mukund notes it is intentionally burning capital to blitz-scale into home and auto lending, and that at a 55x P/E, a 10-year yield above 4.4% is a brutal headwind. x.com 

Intel's CEO buying stock is a strong signal, because insiders sell for many reasons but buy for only one. Per @wallstengine, Lip-Bu Tan bought 105,263 shares at $95, about $10M, lifting his ownership to about 1.33M shares. x.com