Oracle's credit risk is hard to dismiss when its CDS prices a roughly one-in-four risk-neutral chance of default sometime in the next five years. x.com 

The debt behind Oracle's capex is drawing credit-market concern. Its five-year credit-default swap spread has risen past 300 basis points. x.com 

Oracle's debt risk is already largely priced in after the stock fell 43.64% over the past year and 56.1% from its all-time high, which is why its credit default swaps exploded. That makes now a questionable time for Michael Burry to go short. x.com 

Oracle's credit is the load-bearing stress point in AI: its five-year CDS hit 203bp, an 18-year high, after S&P cut it to one notch above junk. S&P cited -$23.7 billion of free cash flow, about $130 billion of debt and a projected $42 billion deficit. Oracle CDS is now the referendum on whether AI debt gets repaid, and the odds of an autumn crash, which would hit OpenAI-dependent names first, are near one in three. CDS through 250 or a 30-year close above 5.30 tilts the odds darker. x.com  x.com 

Oracle is heading for a crash toward a $70 target as it rejects its monthly 50-period moving average from below. The biggest crashes come when a stock breaks its weekly 200-period and monthly 50-period averages, retests them from below and fails. Credit backs this up: Oracle leaned on cheap debt until its CDS hit levels unseen since 2009 and it was cut to one notch above junk, then announced about $20 billion of equity issuance anyway with shares 50% off their highs. x.com  x.com 

Easing credit fears should make debt cheaper for neoclouds and other capital-heavy AI builders, allowing some of the hardest-hit infrastructure stocks to explode higher. Five-year CDS for CoreWeave, Oracle, Meta, Amazon and Nvidia peaked on October 26 and has since eased. Anthropic's S-1, AI infrastructure earnings and Oracle's investor day gave the debt market evidence of demand and returns. The risks should fade quickly so long as revenue and pricing power keep showing up. x.com 

Oracle's heavy AI infrastructure debt poses a further credit risk: if downgraded, an estimated $120B of bonds could leave investment-grade indexes and push borrowing costs higher. Its reported 215-bp CDS spread signals stress; CoreWeave's debt rating looks better by comparison. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's stock is ignoring nervous credit desks, which is not a good sign. Per @CheddarFlow, Oracle's credit risk has skyrocketed, yet the shares still trade as if it isn't happening. x.com 

Oracle will not be allowed to fail if the US government is all in on AI supremacy; it may dip, but not fail. Widening credit default swap spreads, now at 230 bps, and a high debt-to-equity ratio can weigh on the stock, but one quarter of major revenue outperformance would turn the tide. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's credit picture is getting concerning, even with Larry Ellison an incredible businessman. Per @HedgieMarkets, its five-year CDS spread hit a record 230 basis points, four times the investment-grade index and above 2008 levels, with Oracle one notch above junk after S&P cut it to BBB- in July. @HedgieMarkets adds that another downgrade would force investment-grade funds to sell, and that half the backlog is OpenAI, which burns $278 billion more than it takes in through 2030. x.com