The debt behind Oracle's capex is drawing credit-market concern. Its five-year credit-default swap spread has risen past 300 basis points. x.com 

Oracle's credit risk is hard to dismiss when its CDS prices a roughly one-in-four risk-neutral chance of default sometime in the next five years. x.com 

Oracle looks mispriced because $11 of current consolidated earnings power puts it at 11x earnings without a breakup. It trades below its software business's value despite the highest gross retention in software; separating pre-AI OCI, AI operations and AI development makes it an obvious long. Future funding will cost more, but current leverage is no issue and all contracts are well below spot, leaving nowhere near neocloud risk. Fundamentals may not matter during panics. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle is heading for a crash toward a $70 target as it rejects its monthly 50-period moving average from below. The biggest crashes come when a stock breaks its weekly 200-period and monthly 50-period averages, retests them from below and fails. Credit backs this up: Oracle leaned on cheap debt until its CDS hit levels unseen since 2009 and it was cut to one notch above junk, then announced about $20 billion of equity issuance anyway with shares 50% off their highs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's debt risk is already largely priced in after the stock fell 43.64% over the past year and 56.1% from its all-time high, which is why its credit default swaps exploded. That makes now a questionable time for Michael Burry to go short. x.com 

Oracle's credit picture is getting concerning, even with Larry Ellison an incredible businessman. Per @HedgieMarkets, its five-year CDS spread hit a record 230 basis points, four times the investment-grade index and above 2008 levels, with Oracle one notch above junk after S&P cut it to BBB- in July. @HedgieMarkets adds that another downgrade would force investment-grade funds to sell, and that half the backlog is OpenAI, which burns $278 billion more than it takes in through 2030. x.com 

Oracle's OpenAI exposure makes buying its shares here a bet too big to take. x.com  x.com 

Oracle is back to being priced as a software company only, despite its bond-rating pressure and other bad news. @John75323561325 cites a reported $7B-plus increase in collateral calls tied to a Wisconsin data-center project as a rising risk. x.com 

Heavy AI-related borrowing with little to show for it is pressuring Oracle, IREN and Nebius shares. These stocks are beginning to trend lower. x.com