Oracle looks mispriced because $11 of current consolidated earnings power puts it at 11x earnings without a breakup. It trades below its software business's value despite the highest gross retention in software; separating pre-AI OCI, AI operations and AI development makes it an obvious long. Future funding will cost more, but current leverage is no issue and all contracts are well below spot, leaving nowhere near neocloud risk. Fundamentals may not matter during panics. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle should in theory benefit more than anyone if data-center returns come in high, because it applied the most leverage to the buildout. The stock is down 55% in a year despite continued earnings growth and accelerating revenue growth led by cloud. The software business is stagnating as the company pours its resources into data centers, and the continued selloff has been a surprise. x.com 

Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.com 

Oracle's forecast of a FY29 capex step-down and a limit on additional capital raises supports a return to all-time highs soon. Oracle says it will limit those raises to $20 billion through FY30 and reaffirmed its FY27 outlook of over $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 non-GAAP EPS. The stock remains very overcrowded. x.com  x.com 

Oracle will not be allowed to fail if the US government is all in on AI supremacy; it may dip, but not fail. Widening credit default swap spreads, now at 230 bps, and a high debt-to-equity ratio can weigh on the stock, but one quarter of major revenue outperformance would turn the tide. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's stock is ignoring nervous credit desks, which is not a good sign. Per @CheddarFlow, Oracle's credit risk has skyrocketed, yet the shares still trade as if it isn't happening. x.com 

Oracle's 65% pullback, its second-largest after the dot-com drop of 84%, makes $100–120 a great long-term add. It is approaching its rising 100-month EMA, reached only in 2009, 2020 and nearly 2022, while backtesting a 26-year trendline breakout and the top of the monthly Ichimoku cloud, with the 1.414 Fibonacci level at $99. Led by Larry Ellison, one of the world's most successful tech entrepreneurs, it is not going bankrupt. x.com 

Oracle looks buyable for now because the large financing and equity raises feared for next year no longer look imminent. New Mexico commissioners say there were no talks to alter Project Jupiter's power agreement and doubt a majority will approve a change; Stargate may be over a year behind. PIMCO has left AI data-center bonds, which still threatens funding. This is probably a bottom until the AI bubble pops; wait until $200 to short. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's projected free-cash-flow turnaround challenges the market's fear that data-center spending will bring insolvency or years of cash burn for little return. Oracle expects positive FCF in the second half of FY28, at least $30B in FY29 and self-funded growth by FY29 as capex declines. Already undervalued, Oracle is seeing a lift; the clearer profitability path could lift other data-center operators too. x.com