Danny Marques
Bitcoin/AI Investor Relations at OG Advisory Group, Research at Finblueprint
Oracle's 65% pullback, its second-largest after the dot-com drop of 84%, makes $100–120 a great long-term add. It is approaching its rising 100-month EMA, reached only in 2009, 2020 and nearly 2022, while backtesting a 26-year trendline breakout and the top of the monthly Ichimoku cloud, with the 1.414 Fibonacci level at $99. Led by Larry Ellison, one of the world's most successful tech entrepreneurs, it is not going bankrupt. x.com
Oracle's forecast of a FY29 capex step-down and a limit on additional capital raises supports a return to all-time highs soon. Oracle says it will limit those raises to $20 billion through FY30 and reaffirmed its FY27 outlook of over $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 non-GAAP EPS. The stock remains very overcrowded. x.com x.com
Oracle looks mispriced because $11 of current consolidated earnings power puts it at 11x earnings without a breakup. It trades below its software business's value despite the highest gross retention in software; separating pre-AI OCI, AI operations and AI development makes it an obvious long. Future funding will cost more, but current leverage is no issue and all contracts are well below spot, leaving nowhere near neocloud risk. Fundamentals may not matter during panics. x.com x.com x.com
Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.com
Oracle could work as a trade above its recent swing low, backed by its heavy ties to OpenAI, a new deal with Tencent and insider buying. The chart shows a potential failed breakdown of a key zone; below the swing low, the idea should be revisited. x.com
Oracle's backlog is worth nearly twice the whole company, yet the stock sits near its 52-week low. Signed, undelivered orders total $638B, up 363% year over year. x.com
Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com x.com x.com
Oracle's AI buildout looks fundable as spending peaks and cash flow turns positive. Spending is forecast to peak in FY27-28, with free cash flow positive in 2H FY28 and above $30bn in FY29, a roughly $54bn swing. New capital raising is capped at $20bn through 2030, half equity and half debt. Revenue is projected to grow from $90bn next year to $225bn+ by FY30. Bullish Oracle. x.com
Oracle should in theory benefit more than anyone if data-center returns come in high, because it applied the most leverage to the buildout. The stock is down 55% in a year despite continued earnings growth and accelerating revenue growth led by cloud. The software business is stagnating as the company pours its resources into data centers, and the continued selloff has been a surprise. x.com
Oracle's balance sheet and customer risks outweigh its slide to near a 52-week low. Heavy debt, more dilution, round-tripping, data-center delays and heavy OpenAI concentration all weigh on the stock. x.com
Oracle is back to being priced as a software company only, despite its bond-rating pressure and other bad news. @John75323561325 cites a reported $7B-plus increase in collateral calls tied to a Wisconsin data-center project as a rising risk. x.com
