bubble boi
Semiconductor Market Commentary, Thru Project Mascot
Qualcomm's guidance looks far too low: its wafer supply for 2026 implies a big gap to guidance, so it is either ceding leading-edge wafers or massively sandbagging, and only 11% growth through 2029 is mathematically impossible. Its push into ASIC design, starting with a multi-generational custom AI inference silicon deal with Amazon per @wallstengine, is the right move, since it has the IP and skill to give Broadcom a run for its money. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm's licensing position looks stronger after a jury verdict in its dispute with Arm. StockSavvyShay reports that a five-year royalty clause potentially worth about $1.5 billion still awaits the judge's decision; the outcome could shape future licensing agreements as Arm expands into selling silicon. x.comÂ
Anduril's BlueChip partnership is huge for Qualcomm because it extends its role from radio chips to secure US military and government laptops. BlueChip uses Snapdragon X; preorders are planned for 2027, and some supplier agreements remain unfinished. x.com x.comÂ
The bearish call on Qualcomm was completely wrong. As @JDorbal1989 points out, Qualcomm renewed its global patent license agreement with Apple, effective April 1, 2027. x.comÂ
Qualcomm's multi-generation AWS collaboration on custom AI data center silicon and inference shows its data center customers are becoming clear. Qualcomm confirmed the AWS deal is baked into its $15 billion FY29 data center revenue target, which should remove doubt about hitting that number; investor relations confirmed this despite @bubbleboi's objection. Qualcomm remains an execution beneficiary, with its data center value moving toward the upside case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm could protect margins by avoiding $1.5B in Arm royalties and gain leverage in royalty negotiations. Per @StockSavvyShay, a jury favored Qualcomm, but a judge has yet to decide a five-year royalty clause potentially worth about $1.5B. It is a nice little win, not a game changer. x.comÂ
Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.comÂ
Qualcomm looks like an overlooked large cap with strong return potential. If it hits its $18 EPS target by 2029, its 18x average P/E implies $324 a share, a 19% CAGR, or $396 and a 27% CAGR at today's 22x, before any upside from major new deals with Amazon and BMW. It is much more than a smartphone chip company: auto is growing 60% year over year and it is moving into data centers. x.comÂ
Qualcomm is moving deeper into AI infrastructure alongside NVIDIA, Broadcom and Marvell through a partnership with Amazon Web Services. AWS will work with Qualcomm on custom AI inference chips and 1.6T optical connectivity, and Amazon got warrants for up to 25M Qualcomm shares that vest with up to $60B of purchases. CFO Akash Palkhiwala has very high confidence in about $5B of FY2027 data center revenue, with orders in hand, and targets $15B+ data center revenue and $18+ non-GAAP EPS by FY2029. … Show more
Qualcomm is hurt by plunging consumer smartphone sales. Counterpoint Research's preliminary estimate puts global Q3 2026 shipments down 20% year over year, the lowest Q3 since 2012. Apple outperformed Android but was still down. x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm is still priced as a phone company even as diversification absorbs the loss of Apple modem revenue. Non-handset revenue is now about 34% of QCT; automotive revenue grew 38% to $1.3 billion, with 50% growth guided for Q3 and an exit above $6 billion for FY2026. Snapdragon X2 Elite gives it edge-AI leadership, with over 100 Copilot+ PC designs. Q2 FY2026 beat on revenue of $10.6 billion and EPS of $2.65. The Apple overhang of about $6-8 billion is priced in and nearly over. x.comÂ