Ben Bajarin
CEO & Principal Analyst of Creative Strategies, Semiconductors-to-Software Research
Qualcomm's multi-generation AWS collaboration on custom AI data center silicon and inference shows its data center customers are becoming clear. Qualcomm confirmed the AWS deal is baked into its $15 billion FY29 data center revenue target, which should remove doubt about hitting that number; investor relations confirmed this despite @bubbleboi's objection. Qualcomm remains an execution beneficiary, with its data center value moving toward the upside case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm has real upside in data centers if it executes. Supply-chain checks suggest it has all the supply it needs to hit the revenue targets management shared at investor day for the next two years. Data-center and custom-silicon work should make its financial growth look good and accretive, though it could be better; it is tracked as an execution beneficiary, with every business unit modeled as ranges to watch for execution signals. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm is moving deeper into AI infrastructure alongside NVIDIA, Broadcom and Marvell through a partnership with Amazon Web Services. AWS will work with Qualcomm on custom AI inference chips and 1.6T optical connectivity, and Amazon got warrants for up to 25M Qualcomm shares that vest with up to $60B of purchases. CFO Akash Palkhiwala has very high confidence in about $5B of FY2027 data center revenue, with orders in hand, and targets $15B+ data center revenue and $18+ non-GAAP EPS by FY2029. … Show more
Qualcomm is winning hyperscaler data-center chip business. It reportedly landed a $60 billion AI chip deal with Amazon, spanning multiple generations per Bloomberg, along with a $4 billion investment. Its CFO says it is finalizing a second chip manufacturing deal with another major hyperscaler. x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm stays a Hold, with the target cut to $186 on handset weakness and limited near-to-mid-term data-center visibility. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $9.7-10.5B fell short of buy-side chatter near $11B; Android faces elevated wafer inventories and Apple modem revenue is falling faster than expected. Data-center targets of $5B in FY27 and $15B+ in FY29 were reaffirmed and AI250 has four major US cloud customers, but high LPDDR5 prices hurt its competitiveness, and CPUs are years off. … Show more
Qualcomm is shifting from handset supplier to AI infrastructure platform, which should shrink its handset discount. At its June 24 investor day it targeted data center revenue rising from $0.3 billion in fiscal 2026 to over $15 billion by 2029, with the Dragonfly C1000 CPU and AI300 inference accelerator. Micron's results show insatiable AI memory demand that its efficient compute can serve. At about 21x forward earnings versus 30-50x for AI pure plays, a 12-month target of $325 is justified. … Show more
Qualcomm's investor day strengthened the long case, as its CFO raised FY2029 non-handset revenue guidance 91% to $40B. Qualcomm disclosed major orders from two hyperscalers, said its Dragonfly C1000 data-center CPU launches in mid-2028 with Meta among the first customers, introduced the AI300 accelerator and data-center interconnect, and expects $6B of annualized automotive revenue in FY2026. It also agreed to buy AI software firm Modular for $3.9B. x.comÂ
Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.comÂ
Qualcomm's datacenter push would still cover its lost Apple revenue even if it missed its targets by half. At its 2026 IR day, management called datacenter its biggest opportunity ever, targeting $5B of revenue in FY27 with capacity and memory secured and $15B+ by FY29, and raised FY29 non-handset revenue to $40B from $22B. After endless bear cases, from Apple to Samsung and China competition, anything is upside. Hiccups are likely, as no organic datacenter product has customers yet. x.com x.com … Show more
Qualcomm's AI data center upside is not priced in, and a deal with AWS worth up to $60B would quickly change its $15B AI chip plan. Qualcomm and Amazon agreed a multi-generation collaboration on custom silicon for AI inference and optical connectivity. Per @PatrickMoorhead, payments of up to $60B fall under a warrant framework granting Amazon up to 25 million Qualcomm shares, about 2.4% of the company. Amazon revenue starts in the December quarter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm's huge mobile exposure is a reason to be wary of the stock even if it looks cheap. Its server CPU effort is promising, but how much share it can take from incumbents remains to be seen. x.comÂ
Qualcomm is becoming a fuller AI infrastructure player, and the market may re-rate it if its $5B fiscal 2027 data center revenue target is met. Most of that target comes from custom chips for one US and one Chinese hyperscaler, about $2B each at mid-30s gross margins. Its High Bandwidth Cache stacks memory on logic for about 6x HBM's bandwidth per watt, easing the inference memory wall. Alphawave's 800G DSPs already earn revenue, and a Meta custom CPU deal carries a minimum share guarantee. … Show more
