Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Qualcomm's AI data center upside is not priced in, and a deal with AWS worth up to $60B would quickly change its $15B AI chip plan. Qualcomm and Amazon agreed a multi-generation collaboration on custom silicon for AI inference and optical connectivity. Per @PatrickMoorhead, payments of up to $60B fall under a warrant framework granting Amazon up to 25 million Qualcomm shares, about 2.4% of the company. Amazon revenue starts in the December quarter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm's non-handset business is set for rapid growth, making dips buying opportunities. It forecasts non-handset revenue growth including data center of more than 60% in fiscal 2027, up from 24% in fiscal 2026, toward a $40 billion non-handset target for fiscal 2029. Automotive revenue grew 61% last quarter even as handsets fell 20%. x.comÂ
Qualcomm has little downside with Amazon having come in as an investor at around $160 a share. Investors give it almost no credit for AI, wearables, robotics and auto, and those businesses can do the heavy lifting to keep the stock steady next year. x.comÂ
Qualcomm is moving deeper into AI infrastructure alongside NVIDIA, Broadcom and Marvell through a partnership with Amazon Web Services. AWS will work with Qualcomm on custom AI inference chips and 1.6T optical connectivity, and Amazon got warrants for up to 25M Qualcomm shares that vest with up to $60B of purchases. CFO Akash Palkhiwala has very high confidence in about $5B of FY2027 data center revenue, with orders in hand, and targets $15B+ data center revenue and $18+ non-GAAP EPS by FY2029. … Show more
Qualcomm stays a Hold, with the target cut to $186 on handset weakness and limited near-to-mid-term data-center visibility. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $9.7-10.5B fell short of buy-side chatter near $11B; Android faces elevated wafer inventories and Apple modem revenue is falling faster than expected. Data-center targets of $5B in FY27 and $15B+ in FY29 were reaffirmed and AI250 has four major US cloud customers, but high LPDDR5 prices hurt its competitiveness, and CPUs are years off. … Show more
Qualcomm's multi-generation AWS partnership breaks its image as just a smartphone-chip maker and opens a second growth engine in AI data centers. It will develop custom silicon and optical connectivity for AWS AI inference and granted Amazon affiliates warrants for up to 25 million shares, following its data-center CPU work with Meta. Snapdragon still leads in edge AI, AI PCs and auto. At about 20x earnings, in line with its history, valuation offers downside protection. x.comÂ
Amazon's record AI spending looks backed by AWS demand, despite pressure on near-term profit. AWS grew 39% to $46bn, and CEO Andy Jassy projects growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Quarterly capex reached $77.3bn, almost $20bn above expectations; the Q4 profit guide missed and retail ads softened. AWS acceleration makes the drop worth buying. Overweight; $370 target. x.com x.comÂ
Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.comÂ
Anthropic's compute commitments point to future revenue for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom and Nvidia. Its S-1 reports 14-fold revenue growth, positive second-quarter 2026 EBIT and more than $600 billion committed to compute through 2045. The AI trade is alive and well, more than expected, provided demand keeps pace with those commitments. x.comÂ
Qualcomm's multi-generation AWS collaboration on custom AI data center silicon and inference shows its data center customers are becoming clear. Qualcomm confirmed the AWS deal is baked into its $15 billion FY29 data center revenue target, which should remove doubt about hitting that number; investor relations confirmed this despite @bubbleboi's objection. Qualcomm remains an execution beneficiary, with its data center value moving toward the upside case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Qualcomm is not simply undervalued: as a pure chip designer it lacks both manufacturing and distribution to end developers, leaving it squeezed by the largest companies on earth. It sends designs to TSMC and has no vertical integration. Amazon, which has pricing power through AWS, is now using Qualcomm to design its next chip, pushing it to undercut Broadcom. Nvidia controls the CUDA developer ecosystem, so its designs will likely far outpace Qualcomm's. It could be wrong short term. x.comÂ
AI demand could drive a big run in Broadcom, IREN, Oracle, Qualcomm, Nokia and Vistra. IREN's 2 GW of uncontracted power gives it massive upside potential; Vistra's roughly 3.8 GW of Meta and Amazon agreements position it for data-center power demand. Broadcom supplies custom AI chips and networking; Oracle has $664B in backlog and a $300B OpenAI deal; Qualcomm is one of tech's most undervalued names with CPU, physical-AI and data-center exposure; Nokia is essential to AI networking. x.com x.com … Show more
