Irrational Analysis
Semiconductor Engineer, Engineering-Driven Investment Analysis
Qualcomm's bloat looks harder to fix than Intel's was, because its CEO is a big part of it, making the bloat far better at self-preservation: a collusion of the incompetent and useless. Intel was saved by Lip-Bu Tan taking a flamethrower to its bloat. That is the main difference from @WSTAnalystApe's view that Qualcomm is the new Intel. x.com
Qualcomm is hurt by plunging consumer smartphone sales. Counterpoint Research's preliminary estimate puts global Q3 2026 shipments down 20% year over year, the lowest Q3 since 2012. Apple outperformed Android but was still down. x.com x.com
Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.com
Qualcomm has upside from renewing its global patent license agreement with Apple, effective April 1, 2027. x.com
Qualcomm's strained relationship with Arm could hurt its expansion into new markets because it needs technical support from the partner that controls the ISA. The jury awarded Qualcomm $2 on two of six licensing claims and found for Arm on the other four; Arm still has ways to cause Qualcomm pain if it chooses. x.com
Qualcomm stays a Hold, with the target cut to $186 on handset weakness and limited near-to-mid-term data-center visibility. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $9.7-10.5B fell short of buy-side chatter near $11B; Android faces elevated wafer inventories and Apple modem revenue is falling faster than expected. Data-center targets of $5B in FY27 and $15B+ in FY29 were reaffirmed and AI250 has four major US cloud customers, but high LPDDR5 prices hurt its competitiveness, and CPUs are years off. … Show more
Qualcomm's licensing position looks stronger after a jury verdict in its dispute with Arm. StockSavvyShay reports that a five-year royalty clause potentially worth about $1.5 billion still awaits the judge's decision; the outcome could shape future licensing agreements as Arm expands into selling silicon. x.com
Qualcomm is unlikely to rebound meaningfully this year because on-device AI needs more mobile DRAM that phones are not getting. Industry checks suggest Apple walked back full WMCM packaging for the iPhone 18, adopted to fit more DRAM for on-device AI, using it only in high-end models with no RAM upgrade. If Apple, with the strongest buying power, faces this, Qualcomm would need an extraordinary breakthrough past the memory wall. This counters @citrini's view of it as an edge-AI winner. x.com
Apple's weak Mac and iPhone demand and soaring costs threaten worse Q3 results and Q4 guidance than its weak Q2. IDC estimates Mac sales fell 11% y/y in Q3 after rising 13% in Q2. Counterpoint says Pro sales rose just 3% in the first three weeks while overall iPhone sales fell; lower-end models are absent this year. Foldable yields are reportedly 60%, and $100 price hikes may not offset costs. At $5 trillion, 39 P/E and 11 times sales, Apple's crowded 'safe haven' looks vulnerable. x.com
Qualcomm could protect margins by avoiding $1.5B in Arm royalties and gain leverage in royalty negotiations. Per @StockSavvyShay, a jury favored Qualcomm, but a judge has yet to decide a five-year royalty clause potentially worth about $1.5B. It is a nice little win, not a game changer. x.com
Qualcomm has a terrible position in every market it competes in and is not cheap enough to compensate. It faces Nvidia in cars, Intel and AMD in data-center CPUs, and Samsung and Google on their own phones. China is a material share of revenue, and Apple is aggressively cutting out Qualcomm's modem, a long-term revenue headwind. @citrini, bullish since December, made a good call, but the short stands; it also works as a funding short against long compute names such as AMD, SanDisk and Lumentum. … Show more