Mojo
EV, Semiconductor & Driver-Assistance Commentary
Qualcomm's strained relationship with Arm could hurt its expansion into new markets because it needs technical support from the partner that controls the ISA. The jury awarded Qualcomm $2 on two of six licensing claims and found for Arm on the other four; Arm still has ways to cause Qualcomm pain if it chooses. x.comÂ
Qualcomm's data-center push is likely to fail like its PC effort because it lacks the go-to-market skill to win as a late entrant. As the fourth PC player it bought only meaningless volumes and will miss its $4B 2027 target. Data centers are harder: customers build their own silicon, Arm now competes with its own instruction set, and it lacks Nvidia's, AMD's or Intel's cash and scale. The Amazon deal is tepid round-tripping, and EBIT and EPS fell year over year in Q2 and Q3. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
AMD and Intel look undervalued against Arm, while Qualcomm faces two hellish years. AMD is worth only 2x Arm despite 6x higher, faster-growing net profit, and Intel only 70% more than Arm, though its CPU business alone should be worth twice as much on a normalized basis, with foundry covering the rest. Qualcomm was hit by Apple and then memory prices, is being outcompeted by NVIDIA in automotive, and its AI racks are pure desperation. x.comÂ
Qualcomm has a terrible position in every market it competes in and is not cheap enough to compensate. It faces Nvidia in cars, Intel and AMD in data-center CPUs, and Samsung and Google on their own phones. China is a material share of revenue, and Apple is aggressively cutting out Qualcomm's modem, a long-term revenue headwind. @citrini, bullish since December, made a good call, but the short stands; it also works as a funding short against long compute names such as AMD, SanDisk and Lumentum. … Show more
Qualcomm's licensing position looks stronger after a jury verdict in its dispute with Arm. StockSavvyShay reports that a five-year royalty clause potentially worth about $1.5 billion still awaits the judge's decision; the outcome could shape future licensing agreements as Arm expands into selling silicon. x.comÂ
Qualcomm is hurt by plunging consumer smartphone sales. Counterpoint Research's preliminary estimate puts global Q3 2026 shipments down 20% year over year, the lowest Q3 since 2012. Apple outperformed Android but was still down. x.com x.comÂ
Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.comÂ
Qualcomm could protect margins by avoiding $1.5B in Arm royalties and gain leverage in royalty negotiations. Per @StockSavvyShay, a jury favored Qualcomm, but a judge has yet to decide a five-year royalty clause potentially worth about $1.5B. It is a nice little win, not a game changer. x.comÂ
Qualcomm stays a Hold, with the target cut to $186 on handset weakness and limited near-to-mid-term data-center visibility. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $9.7-10.5B fell short of buy-side chatter near $11B; Android faces elevated wafer inventories and Apple modem revenue is falling faster than expected. Data-center targets of $5B in FY27 and $15B+ in FY29 were reaffirmed and AI250 has four major US cloud customers, but high LPDDR5 prices hurt its competitiveness, and CPUs are years off. … Show more
Arm's valuation carries an absurd premium for the architecture layer. It trades at 91.9x EV/sales, far above its historical range, as Wall Street prices it as the mandatory royalty tollbooth for every custom AI chip. EDA leaders Cadence, at 30.1x, and Synopsys, at 21.2x, trade near the low end of their historical bands, priced like mature utilities, as the market stacks almost all the scarcity premium into Arm. x.comÂ
Anduril's BlueChip partnership is huge for Qualcomm because it extends its role from radio chips to secure US military and government laptops. BlueChip uses Snapdragon X; preorders are planned for 2027, and some supplier agreements remain unfinished. x.com x.comÂ
The bearish call on Qualcomm was completely wrong. As @JDorbal1989 points out, Qualcomm renewed its global patent license agreement with Apple, effective April 1, 2027. x.comÂ
