Home Depot and Lowe's are the steadier way to play an eventual rate reversal because they capture both renovation money and maintenance spending that must continue no matter what. Floor & Decor has more upside but more downside if rates stay higher for longer, with no dividend support. Home Depot touched its 2023 low, a level many watch, GF Value has it cheaper than then, and its yield is the highest in years. Sherwin-Williams is a nice hybrid to add, still well above its roughly $295 lows. … Show more

Home Depot is a best-in-class operator trading near 52-week lows, and it has historically come out of housing cycles stronger. Weak housing turnover has clearly been a headwind, but its balance sheet, scale, dividend and long-term pricing power still look very attractive. x.com 

Lowe's is a high-quality long-term hold to buy while housing is out of favor. Its five-year chart looks flat because of post-Covid sentiment, but its share count has fallen substantially over the past decade, and it has beaten the S&P 500 over 10 and 20 years. Q1 was a double beat with sales up 10%, though guidance spooked investors. The $210 level was the target for adding, and the timing of a housing recovery is unknown. x.com 

Home Depot and homebuilders look awful and have broken below support. Both offer a lot of value and are way oversold, but they need interest rates, inflation and oil to come down before they can recover. x.com 

Sherwin-Williams looks fully valued at 24x earnings on a normalized housing market, leaving returns dependent on the multiple. Store count grows only about 2% on a 4,800 base as penetration matures; with roughly 2% comps at a 30% incremental EBITDA margin, EBITDA grows about 6%. It is a great business with low disruption risk, but higher-beta housing stocks should deliver better returns if the cycle normalizes. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Sherwin-Williams can earn much more as housing turnover normalizes, because its pricing power holds even while its biggest end market is broken. Paint Stores comps rose 4.2% in Q2 with existing home sales at a 4.06M pace, and FY26 EPS guidance rose to $11.80-12.20. A normal 5.3M year could add about $1.50-2 of EPS, or roughly $14 of earnings power, 24x at $330, with upside past $17 if input costs help. PPG's exit and Kelly Moore's liquidation leave it gaining pro share. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more