Home Depot and Lowe's are the steadier way to play an eventual rate reversal because they capture both renovation money and maintenance spending that must continue no matter what. Floor & Decor has more upside but more downside if rates stay higher for longer, with no dividend support. Home Depot touched its 2023 low, a level many watch, GF Value has it cheaper than then, and its yield is the highest in years. Sherwin-Williams is a nice hybrid to add, still well above its roughly $295 lows. … Show more

Lowe's is a high-quality long-term hold to buy while housing is out of favor. Its five-year chart looks flat because of post-Covid sentiment, but its share count has fallen substantially over the past decade, and it has beaten the S&P 500 over 10 and 20 years. Q1 was a double beat with sales up 10%, though guidance spooked investors. The $210 level was the target for adding, and the timing of a housing recovery is unknown. x.com 

Home Depot and homebuilders look awful and have broken below support. Both offer a lot of value and are way oversold, but they need interest rates, inflation and oil to come down before they can recover. x.com 

Falling rates and buying in financials, consumer discretionary and Home Depot make US small caps a very good buy here with high probability. The drawdown exceeds 11%, as it did at the start of the Iran war, and daily RSI and MACD are at similar bottoms. x.com 

Ugly housing conditions provide the contrarian sentiment for a major homebuilder bull run over the next 12 months. Bears investing through the rearview mirror are going to be proven wrong. x.com 

Lowe's looks like junk at current interest rates because it was valued at about 30x earnings with a low dividend. Per @sv_techie, the stock sits at a five-year low and keeps falling, and its trend will change only if the 10-year Treasury yield moves meaningfully. x.com 

Floor & Decor's current weakness is a cyclical malaise set against a structural moat. x.com 

Sherwin-Williams looks fully valued at 24x earnings on a normalized housing market, leaving returns dependent on the multiple. Store count grows only about 2% on a 4,800 base as penetration matures; with roughly 2% comps at a 30% incremental EBITDA margin, EBITDA grows about 6%. It is a great business with low disruption risk, but higher-beta housing stocks should deliver better returns if the cycle normalizes. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Sherwin-Williams can earn much more as housing turnover normalizes, because its pricing power holds even while its biggest end market is broken. Paint Stores comps rose 4.2% in Q2 with existing home sales at a 4.06M pace, and FY26 EPS guidance rose to $11.80-12.20. A normal 5.3M year could add about $1.50-2 of EPS, or roughly $14 of earnings power, 24x at $330, with upside past $17 if input costs help. PPG's exit and Kelly Moore's liquidation leave it gaining pro share. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Homebuilders like D.R. Horton look ugly while rates weigh on them, and it is not time to buy yet. D.R. Horton may soon become an ugly long-term buy, but not yet. x.com